DCF Studio

    NWSA · NMS · Communication Services

    News Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 17.70

    Market price

    USD 29.69

    Implied upside

    -40.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-06-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 17.70-40.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 24.15-18.6%
    Market price
    USD 29.69

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m397m793mFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 9.4bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 10.1bnUSD 10.4bnUSD 10.7bnUSD 11.0bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.2bn+3.0%
    EBITUSD 990.3mUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn+3.0%
    NOPATUSD 782.4mUSD 809.2mUSD 835.9mUSD 862.6mUSD 889.2mUSD 915.5mUSD 941.6mUSD 967.3mUSD 992.6mUSD 1.0bn+3.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 501.6mUSD 518.8mUSD 536.0mUSD 553.1mUSD 570.1mUSD 587.0mUSD 603.7mUSD 620.2mUSD 636.4mUSD 652.3m+3.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -428.1mUSD -477.4mUSD -529.0mUSD -582.8mUSD -638.8mUSD -697.0mUSD -757.1mUSD -819.2mUSD -883.1mUSD -948.7m+9.2%
    Capex, % of revenue4.5%4.9%5.3%5.6%6.0%6.3%6.7%7.0%7.4%7.8%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -68.7mUSD -57.4mUSD -57.3mUSD -57.2mUSD -56.9mUSD -56.4mUSD -55.8mUSD -55.1mUSD -54.2mUSD -53.1m-2.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 787.2mUSD 793.2mUSD 785.6mUSD 775.7mUSD 763.6mUSD 749.1mUSD 732.3mUSD 713.2mUSD 691.7mUSD 667.8m-1.8%
    Discount factor0.95970.88380.81400.74970.69040.63590.58560.53930.49670.4575-
    Present valueUSD 755.4mUSD 701.0mUSD 639.4mUSD 581.5mUSD 527.2mUSD 476.3mUSD 428.9mUSD 384.7mUSD 343.6mUSD 305.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 5.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.007Reported 1.010, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.15%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 16.0bn84.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.9bn15.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.58%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 17.70

    52% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 667.8m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -296.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 721.0m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 12.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 5.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 10.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 820.0m
    Equity value
    USD 9.9bn

    Exit at 10.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 24.15

    64% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 20.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 9.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 14.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 820.0m
    Equity value
    USD 13.5bn

    Spread between methods: 31%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.58%24.2223.8923.5623.2422.92
    7.58%20.7820.5020.2219.9319.65
    8.58%18.1717.9317.7017.4617.23
    9.58%16.1115.9115.7115.5115.31
    10.58%14.4514.2714.1013.9313.76

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 29.69. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year4.1%3.1%10.0%
    EBIT margin12.6%10.5%17.0%
    Discount rate-8.6%5.7%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.