DCF Studio

    STLAM.MI · MIL · Consumer Cyclical

    Stellantis N.V.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 27.62

    Market price

    EUR 4.20

    Implied upside

    +557.0%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 5.9% of revenue against depreciation of 4.2%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 27.62+557.0%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 19.87+372.7%
    Market price
    EUR 4.20

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 145.7bnEUR 138.3bnEUR 131.2bnEUR 124.5bnEUR 118.2bn-5.1%
    EBITEUR 4.7bnEUR 4.4bnEUR 4.2bnEUR 4.0bnEUR 3.8bn-5.1%
    NOPATEUR 4.0bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 3.6bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.2bn-5.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 6.2bnEUR 5.8bnEUR 5.6bnEUR 5.3bnEUR 5.0bn-5.1%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -8.5bnEUR -8.1bnEUR -7.7bnEUR -7.3bnEUR -6.9bn-5.1%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.0bn+5.1%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 4.1bnEUR 3.9bnEUR 3.7bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.3bn-5.1%
    Discount factor0.97420.92460.87750.83280.7904-
    Present valueEUR 4.0bnEUR 3.6bnEUR 3.2bnEUR 2.9bnEUR 2.6bn-9.9%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 16.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.990Reported 0.985, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.63%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 15.8bn25.6% of capital
    Total debtEUR 45.9bn74.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate15.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.37%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 27.62

    83% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 3.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 3.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (14.0% of NOPAT)
    EUR -450.0m
    Capitalised
    EUR 2.8bn
    ROIC (reported)
    17.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 98.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 78.0bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 94.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 14.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 79.7bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 19.87

    77% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 70.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 55.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 72.0bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 14.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR 57.4bn

    Spread between methods: 33%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.37%48.5664.3398.27224.70—
    4.37%30.4735.8344.0358.2388.77
    5.37%21.7324.2427.6232.4139.76
    6.37%16.5717.9519.6821.9124.92
    7.37%13.1613.9914.9916.2117.74

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 4.20. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    EBIT margin3.2%0.9%-2.3pp
    Discount rate5.4%14.3%+9.0pp
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.