ULVR.L · LSE · Consumer Defensive
Unilever PLC
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
GBp 3020.85
Market price
GBp 4621.00
Implied upside
-34.6%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · EUR model at 0.8573
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | EUR 47.7bn | EUR 45.0bn | EUR 42.5bn | EUR 40.1bn | EUR 37.8bn | -5.6% |
| EBIT | EUR 8.8bn | EUR 8.3bn | EUR 7.8bn | EUR 7.4bn | EUR 7.0bn | -5.6% |
| NOPAT | EUR 6.6bn | EUR 6.2bn | EUR 5.9bn | EUR 5.5bn | EUR 5.2bn | -5.6% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | EUR 1.3bn | EUR 1.2bn | EUR 1.1bn | EUR 1.1bn | EUR 1.0bn | -5.6% |
| Less capital expenditure | EUR -1.4bn | EUR -1.3bn | EUR -1.3bn | EUR -1.2bn | EUR -1.1bn | -5.6% |
| Less increase in working capital | EUR 254.6m | EUR 240.3m | EUR 226.8m | EUR 214.1m | EUR 202.1m | +5.6% |
| Free cashflow to firm | EUR 6.7bn | EUR 6.3bn | EUR 6.0bn | EUR 5.6bn | EUR 5.3bn | -5.6% |
| Discount factor | 0.9668 | 0.9037 | 0.8447 | 0.7896 | 0.7380 | - |
| Present value | EUR 6.5bn | EUR 5.7bn | EUR 5.1bn | EUR 4.5bn | EUR 3.9bn | -11.8% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | EUR 25.7bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.50% | GBP assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 5.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.634 | Reported 0.453, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 7.98% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.50% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | EUR 99.5bn | 78.3% of capital |
| Total debt | EUR 27.6bn | 21.7% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 25.0% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.98% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
74% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- EUR 5.3bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- EUR 5.2bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (15.9% of NOPAT)
- EUR -829.8m
- Capitalised
- EUR 4.4bn
- ROIC (reported)
- 15.8%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 100.6bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 74.3bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 99.9bn
- Less net debt
- EUR 22.6bn
- Equity value
- EUR 77.4bn
Exit at 10.6x EBITDA
71% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- EUR 85.0bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- EUR 62.7bn
- Enterprise value
- EUR 88.4bn
- Less net debt
- EUR 22.6bn
- Equity value
- EUR 65.8bn
Spread between methods: 16%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.98% | 52.40 | 59.07 | 68.41 | 82.42 | 105.83 |
| 5.98% | 39.24 | 42.67 | 47.08 | 52.94 | 61.14 |
| 6.98% | 30.86 | 32.84 | 35.24 | 38.23 | 42.06 |
| 7.98% | 25.06 | 26.27 | 27.69 | 29.39 | 31.45 |
| 8.98% | 20.79 | 21.57 | 22.46 | 23.48 | 24.69 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 53.90. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | -5.6% | 2.2% | +7.8pp |
| EBIT margin | 18.4% | 26.0% | +7.6pp |
| Discount rate | 7.0% | 5.6% | -1.4pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.