0005.HK · HKG · Financial Services
HSBC Holdings plc
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
HKD 221.16
Market price
HKD 134.60
Implied upside
+64.3%
10-year forecast · Excess returns over book equity · Base case · USD model at 7.8466 · Price 2026-11-03 · Accounts to 2025-12-31
AdjustedReports in USD, trades in HKD. Modelled in USD, converted at the end.
NoteA financial, valued on excess returns over book equity.
NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: HKD assumption - no free live source available for this market.
Excess Returns
- Return on equity
- 12.4%
- Payout
- 55%
- Cost of equity
- 6.73%
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening book equity | USD 198.2bn | USD 208.7bn | USD 219.0bn | USD 229.2bn | USD 239.2bn | USD 248.9bn | USD 258.1bn | USD 267.0bn | USD 275.3bn | USD 283.0bn |
| Return on equity | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% |
| Excess return | USD 11.2bn | USD 11.8bn | USD 12.3bn | USD 12.9bn | USD 13.5bn | USD 14.0bn | USD 14.5bn | USD 15.0bn | USD 15.5bn | USD 15.9bn |
| Present value | USD 10.5bn | USD 10.3bn | USD 10.1bn | USD 9.9bn | USD 9.7bn | USD 9.5bn | USD 9.2bn | USD 8.9bn | USD 8.6bn | USD 8.3bn |
| Book equity | USD 198.2bn |
| Present value of excess returns | USD 95.2bn |
| Terminal, growing at 2.50% | USD 201.2bn |
| Equity value | USD 494.6bn |
| Per share | USD 28.19 |
Discount Rate
| Risk-free rate | 3.20% | HKD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 5.01% | Damodaran, January 2026 |
| Beta | 0.705 | Reported 0.560, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 6.73% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
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Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.