0941.HK · HKG · Communication Services
China Mobile Limited
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
HKD 166.36
Market price
HKD 79.05
Implied upside
+110.5%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · CNY model at 1.1708
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (CNY). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | CNY 1090.8bn | CNY 1132.9bn | CNY 1176.7bn | CNY 1222.2bn | CNY 1269.4bn | +3.9% |
| EBIT | CNY 160.7bn | CNY 166.9bn | CNY 173.3bn | CNY 180.0bn | CNY 187.0bn | +3.9% |
| NOPAT | CNY 134.2bn | CNY 139.3bn | CNY 144.7bn | CNY 150.3bn | CNY 156.1bn | +3.9% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | CNY 213.6bn | CNY 221.8bn | CNY 230.4bn | CNY 239.3bn | CNY 248.6bn | +3.9% |
| Less capital expenditure | CNY -185.8bn | CNY -192.9bn | CNY -200.4bn | CNY -208.1bn | CNY -216.2bn | +3.9% |
| Less increase in working capital | CNY -12.6bn | CNY -13.1bn | CNY -13.6bn | CNY -14.2bn | CNY -14.7bn | +3.9% |
| Free cashflow to firm | CNY 149.3bn | CNY 155.1bn | CNY 161.1bn | CNY 167.3bn | CNY 173.8bn | +3.9% |
| Discount factor | 0.9690 | 0.9098 | 0.8542 | 0.8020 | 0.7530 | - |
| Present value | CNY 144.7bn | CNY 141.1bn | CNY 137.6bn | CNY 134.2bn | CNY 130.9bn | -2.5% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | CNY 688.6bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 3.20% | HKD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 7.00% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.504 | Reported 0.259, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 6.72% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 3.36% | Interest expense / average total debt |
| Market capitalisation | CNY 1714.1bn | 94.4% of capital |
| Total debt | CNY 101.2bn | 5.6% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 16.5% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.51% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
76% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- CNY 173.8bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- CNY 156.1bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.6% of NOPAT)
- CNY -43.0bn
- Capitalised
- CNY 113.1bn
- ROIC (reported)
- 9.1%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- CNY 2894.2bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- CNY 2179.4bn
- Enterprise value
- CNY 2868.0bn
- Less net debt
- CNY -207.6bn
- Equity value
- CNY 3075.5bn
Exit at 4.3x EBITDA
67% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- CNY 1886.7bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- CNY 1420.8bn
- Enterprise value
- CNY 2109.3bn
- Less net debt
- CNY -207.6bn
- Equity value
- CNY 2316.9bn
Spread between methods: 28%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (CNY) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.51% | 209.65 | 230.63 | 261.91 | 313.74 | 416.76 |
| 5.51% | 162.00 | 170.69 | 182.15 | 198.07 | 221.77 |
| 6.51% | 133.33 | 137.26 | 142.09 | 148.22 | 156.29 |
| 7.51% | 114.15 | 115.90 | 117.94 | 120.37 | 123.34 |
| 8.51% | 100.41 | 101.05 | 101.76 | 102.55 | 103.44 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 67.52. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 3.9% | -17.7% | -21.6pp |
| EBIT margin | 14.7% | 6.2% | -8.5pp |
| Discount rate | 6.5% | 13.6% | +7.1pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.