DCF Studio

    0968.HK · HKG · Technology

    Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    HKD 7.79

    Market price

    HKD 1.85

    Implied upside

    +321.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · CNY model at 1.1759 · Price 2026-11-03 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedReports in CNY, trades in HKD. Modelled in CNY, converted at the end.
    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 25.8% of revenue against depreciation of 8.5%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: HKD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    HKD 7.79+321.1%
    Exit multiple
    HKD 3.30+78.3%
    Market price
    HKD 1.85

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (CNY). Outflows negative.

    -0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayCNY
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueCNY 18.7bnCNY 21.2bnCNY 23.8bnCNY 26.3bnCNY 28.7bnCNY 31.0bnCNY 33.1bnCNY 34.8bnCNY 36.1bnCNY 37.0bn+7.9%
    EBITCNY 3.8bnCNY 4.3bnCNY 4.8bnCNY 5.3bnCNY 5.8bnCNY 6.2bnCNY 6.6bnCNY 7.0bnCNY 7.2bnCNY 7.4bn+7.9%
    NOPATCNY 3.1bnCNY 3.6bnCNY 4.0bnCNY 4.4bnCNY 4.8bnCNY 5.2bnCNY 5.5bnCNY 5.8bnCNY 6.0bnCNY 6.2bn+7.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationCNY 1.6bnCNY 1.8bnCNY 2.0bnCNY 2.2bnCNY 2.4bnCNY 2.6bnCNY 2.8bnCNY 3.0bnCNY 3.1bnCNY 3.2bn+7.9%
    Less capital expenditureCNY -4.8bnCNY -5.2bnCNY -5.4bnCNY -5.7bnCNY -5.8bnCNY -5.8bnCNY -5.7bnCNY -5.5bnCNY -5.2bnCNY -4.8bn-0.1%
    Capex, % of revenue25.8%24.3%22.9%21.5%20.1%18.6%17.2%15.8%14.4%12.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalCNY 589.6mCNY -693.6mCNY -706.2mCNY -701.4mCNY -677.1mCNY -631.8mCNY -565.2mCNY -478.0mCNY -372.1mCNY -250.7m-
    Free cashflow to firmCNY 495.0mCNY -498.7mCNY -149.7mCNY 288.4mCNY 813.5mCNY 1.4bnCNY 2.1bnCNY 2.8bnCNY 3.6bnCNY 4.3bn+27.2%
    Discount factor0.96790.90660.84930.79560.74530.69810.65400.61260.57390.5376-
    Present valueCNY 479.1mCNY -452.2mCNY -127.2mCNY 229.5mCNY 606.3mCNY 990.0mCNY 1.4bnCNY 1.7bnCNY 2.0bnCNY 2.3bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastCNY 9.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%HKD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium5.01%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.289Reported 1.432, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.66%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt3.60%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 10.7x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 2.6%.
    Market capitalisationCNY 16.9bn56.3% of capital
    Total debtCNY 13.1bn43.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate16.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.75%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareCNY 6.63

    87% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    CNY 4.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    CNY 6.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (26.5% of NOPAT)
    CNY -1.6bn
    Capitalised
    CNY 4.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    9.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    CNY 109.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    CNY 59.0bn
    Enterprise value
    CNY 68.2bn
    Less net debt
    CNY 7.9bn
    Equity value
    CNY 60.3bn

    Exit at 4.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareCNY 2.81

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    CNY 45.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    CNY 24.3bn
    Enterprise value
    CNY 33.4bn
    Less net debt
    CNY 7.9bn
    Equity value
    CNY 25.5bn

    Spread between methods: 81%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (CNY) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.75%12.0313.2114.9617.7522.85
    5.75%8.478.909.4910.3211.57
    6.75%6.296.436.636.897.26
    7.75%4.844.854.884.935.01
    8.75%3.803.753.713.663.63

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 1.57. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year4.8%5.9%-7.2%
    EBIT margin25.9%20.0%9.7%
    Discount rate-6.8%13.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.