1038.HK · HKG · Utilities
CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
HKD -2.63
Market price
HKD 65.40
Implied upside
-104.0%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Current EV/EBITDA of 329.6x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (HKD). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | HKD 3.9bn | HKD 3.4bn | HKD 3.0bn | HKD 2.6bn | HKD 2.3bn | -12.6% |
| EBIT | HKD 802.8m | HKD 701.7m | HKD 613.4m | HKD 536.1m | HKD 468.6m | -12.6% |
| NOPAT | HKD 791.1m | HKD 691.5m | HKD 604.4m | HKD 528.3m | HKD 461.8m | -12.6% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | HKD 250.3m | HKD 218.8m | HKD 191.2m | HKD 167.2m | HKD 146.1m | -12.6% |
| Less capital expenditure | HKD -271.7m | HKD -237.5m | HKD -207.6m | HKD -181.5m | HKD -158.6m | -12.6% |
| Less increase in working capital | HKD 102.3m | HKD 89.5m | HKD 78.2m | HKD 68.3m | HKD 59.7m | +12.6% |
| Free cashflow to firm | HKD 872.0m | HKD 762.2m | HKD 666.2m | HKD 582.4m | HKD 509.1m | -12.6% |
| Discount factor | 0.9608 | 0.8868 | 0.8186 | 0.7556 | 0.6975 | - |
| Present value | HKD 837.8m | HKD 675.9m | HKD 545.4m | HKD 440.1m | HKD 355.1m | -19.3% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | HKD 2.9bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 3.20% | HKD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 7.00% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.809 | Reported 0.715, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 8.86% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.22% | Interest expense / average total debt |
| Market capitalisation | HKD 164.8bn | 88.8% of capital |
| Total debt | HKD 20.9bn | 11.2% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 1.5% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 8.33% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
59% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- HKD 509.1m
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- HKD 471.5m
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.0% of NOPAT)
- HKD -141.4m
- Capitalised
- HKD 330.1m
- ROIC (WACC floor)
- 8.3%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- HKD 5.8bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- HKD 4.0bn
- Enterprise value
- HKD 6.9bn
- Less net debt
- HKD 13.5bn
- Equity value
- HKD -6.6bn
Exit at 20.0x EBITDA
75% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- HKD 12.3bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- HKD 8.6bn
- Enterprise value
- HKD 11.4bn
- Less net debt
- HKD 13.5bn
- Equity value
- HKD -2.1bn
Sensitivity
Value per share (HKD) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 6.33% | -1.92 | -1.91 | -1.89 | -1.88 | -1.87 |
| 7.33% | -2.33 | -2.32 | -2.31 | -2.30 | -2.29 |
| 8.33% | -2.65 | -2.64 | -2.63 | -2.62 | -2.62 |
| 9.33% | -2.90 | -2.89 | -2.88 | -2.88 | -2.87 |
| 10.33% | -3.10 | -3.09 | -3.09 | -3.08 | -3.07 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 65.40. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | -12.6% | 82.8% | +95.4pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.