DCF Studio

    1209.HK · HKG · Real Estate

    China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    HKD 53.08

    Market price

    HKD 37.54

    Implied upside

    +41.4%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · CNY model at 1.1708

    AdjustedReports in CNY, trades in HKD. Modelled in CNY, converted at the end.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: HKD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    HKD 53.08+41.4%
    Exit multiple
    HKD 62.88+67.5%
    Market price
    HKD 37.54

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (CNY). Outflows negative.

    0bn4bn7bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayCNY
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueCNY 20.6bnCNY 23.6bnCNY 27.0bnCNY 30.9bnCNY 35.4bn+14.5%
    EBITCNY 5.1bnCNY 5.8bnCNY 6.7bnCNY 7.7bnCNY 8.8bn+14.5%
    NOPATCNY 4.3bnCNY 4.9bnCNY 5.6bnCNY 6.4bnCNY 7.3bn+14.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationCNY 402.0mCNY 460.1mCNY 526.7mCNY 602.9mCNY 690.1m+14.5%
    Less capital expenditureCNY -433.9mCNY -496.7mCNY -568.5mCNY -650.7mCNY -744.9m+14.5%
    Less increase in working capitalCNY -65.3mCNY -74.7mCNY -85.5mCNY -97.9mCNY -112.0m+14.5%
    Free cashflow to firmCNY 4.2bnCNY 4.8bnCNY 5.5bnCNY 6.2bnCNY 7.1bn+14.5%
    Discount factor0.95870.88110.80980.74430.6841-
    Present valueCNY 4.0bnCNY 4.2bnCNY 4.4bnCNY 4.6bnCNY 4.9bn+5.2%
    Present Value Of The ForecastCNY 22.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%HKD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium7.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.818Reported 0.728, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.92%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.91%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationCNY 85.7bn97.5% of capital
    Total debtCNY 2.2bn2.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate16.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.80%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareCNY 45.34

    77% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    CNY 7.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    CNY 7.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (12.3% of NOPAT)
    CNY -930.2m
    Capitalised
    CNY 6.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    20.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    CNY 108.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    CNY 73.9bn
    Enterprise value
    CNY 96.0bn
    Less net debt
    CNY -7.5bn
    Equity value
    CNY 103.5bn

    Exit at 14.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareCNY 53.70

    81% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    CNY 135.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    CNY 93.0bn
    Enterprise value
    CNY 115.1bn
    Less net debt
    CNY -7.5bn
    Equity value
    CNY 122.6bn

    Spread between methods: 17%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (CNY) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.80%57.1960.6964.9970.4177.45
    7.80%48.4950.7053.3156.4560.31
    8.80%42.1843.6545.3447.3149.64
    9.80%37.4038.4139.5540.8542.35
    10.80%33.6534.3735.1636.0537.06

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 32.06. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year14.5%5.2%-9.3pp
    EBIT margin24.7%16.8%-8.0pp
    Discount rate8.8%11.7%+2.9pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.