3690.HK · HKG · Consumer Cyclical
Meituan
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
HKD 118.81
Market price
HKD 73.20
Implied upside
+62.3%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · CNY model at 1.1708
No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (CNY). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | CNY 431.9bn | CNY 511.3bn | CNY 605.2bn | CNY 716.4bn | CNY 848.1bn | +18.4% |
| EBIT | CNY 2.0bn | CNY 2.4bn | CNY 2.8bn | CNY 3.3bn | CNY 3.9bn | +18.4% |
| NOPAT | CNY 1.9bn | CNY 2.3bn | CNY 2.7bn | CNY 3.2bn | CNY 3.8bn | +18.4% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | CNY 13.6bn | CNY 16.1bn | CNY 19.1bn | CNY 22.6bn | CNY 26.7bn | +18.4% |
| Less capital expenditure | CNY -12.9bn | CNY -15.3bn | CNY -18.1bn | CNY -21.5bn | CNY -25.4bn | +18.4% |
| Less increase in working capital | CNY 7.1bn | CNY 8.4bn | CNY 10.0bn | CNY 11.8bn | CNY 14.0bn | -18.4% |
| Free cashflow to firm | CNY 9.7bn | CNY 11.5bn | CNY 13.6bn | CNY 16.1bn | CNY 19.1bn | +18.4% |
| Discount factor | 0.9716 | 0.9172 | 0.8658 | 0.8174 | 0.7716 | - |
| Present value | CNY 9.4bn | CNY 10.6bn | CNY 11.8bn | CNY 13.2bn | CNY 14.7bn | +11.7% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | CNY 59.7bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 3.20% | HKD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 7.00% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.476 | Reported 0.218, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 6.53% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 3.20% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | CNY 409.4bn | 82.5% of capital |
| Total debt | CNY 86.6bn | 17.5% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 3.5% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 5.93% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
89% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- CNY 19.1bn
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- CNY 28.6bn
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.6% of NOPAT)
- CNY -7.9bn
- Capitalised
- CNY 20.7bn
- ROIC (reported)
- 9.1%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- CNY 617.9bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- CNY 476.8bn
- Enterprise value
- CNY 536.5bn
- Less net debt
- CNY -80.2bn
- Equity value
- CNY 616.7bn
Exit at 8.0x EBITDA
76% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- CNY 245.1bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- CNY 189.2bn
- Enterprise value
- CNY 248.8bn
- Less net debt
- CNY -80.2bn
- Equity value
- CNY 329.0bn
Spread between methods: 61%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (CNY) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 3.93% | 161.22 | 186.20 | 228.48 | 315.93 | 605.69 |
| 4.93% | 116.71 | 125.92 | 138.83 | 158.32 | 191.27 |
| 5.93% | 92.35 | 96.35 | 101.47 | 108.27 | 117.78 |
| 6.93% | 76.99 | 78.82 | 81.01 | 83.71 | 87.14 |
| 7.93% | 66.45 | 67.22 | 68.10 | 69.12 | 70.33 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 62.52. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 18.4% | 6.2% | -12.2pp |
| EBIT margin | 0.5% | -1.0% | -1.5pp |
| Discount rate | 5.9% | 8.5% | +2.6pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.