5E2.SI · SES · Energy

Seatrium Limited

Also onConsensus Drift

Implied value per share

SGD -1.58

Market price

SGD 2.12

Implied upside

-174.5%

5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 1.32% of revenue against depreciation of 4.56%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 4.56% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.

NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

Value Per Share

Perpetuity growth

SGD -1.58-174.5%

Exit multiple

SGD 4.19+97.5%

Market price

SGD 2.12

Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

Assumptions

Discount rate (WACC)6.39%Growth after the forecast2.50%Exit EV/EBITDA9.9xTax rate24.03%Capex, % of revenue4.56%Depreciation, % of revenue6.01%Working capital, % of revenue growth4.36%

Forecast Cashflows

Reporting currency (SGD). Outflows negative.

Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todaySGD

Line	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	CAGR
Revenue	SGD 17.2bn	SGD 25.8bn	SGD 38.7bn	SGD 58.1bn	SGD 87.1bn	+50.0%
EBIT	SGD -517.4m	SGD -776.1m	SGD -1.2bn	SGD -1.7bn	SGD -2.6bn	-50.0%
NOPAT	SGD -393.1m	SGD -589.6m	SGD -884.4m	SGD -1.3bn	SGD -2.0bn	-50.0%
Add depreciation & amortisation	SGD 1.0bn	SGD 1.6bn	SGD 2.3bn	SGD 3.5bn	SGD 5.2bn	+50.0%
Less capital expenditure	SGD -784.7m	SGD -1.2bn	SGD -1.8bn	SGD -2.6bn	SGD -4.0bn	+50.0%
Less increase in working capital	SGD -250.2m	SGD -375.2m	SGD -562.9m	SGD -844.3m	SGD -1.3bn	+50.0%
Free cashflow to firm	SGD -393.3m	SGD -589.9m	SGD -884.9m	SGD -1.3bn	SGD -2.0bn	-50.0%
Discount factor	0.9695	0.9113	0.8566	0.8051	0.7568	-
Present value	SGD -381.3m	SGD -537.6m	SGD -757.9m	SGD -1.1bn	SGD -1.5bn	-41.0%
Present Value Of The Forecast	SGD -4.3bn

Discount Rate

Source shown per component. All overridable above.

Risk-free rate	4.20%	USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
Equity risk premium	6.50%	Market assumption
Beta	0.492	Reported 0.242, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
Cost of equity	7.40%	Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
Cost of debt	5.18%	Interest expense / average total debt
Market capitalisation	SGD 7.2bn	70.9% of capital
Total debt	SGD 3.0bn	29.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
Tax rate	24.0%	Effective, capped at statutory
WACC	6.39%	E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

Terminal Value

Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

Value per shareSGD -1.58

0% of EV

Terminal value, undiscounted: SGD 0.00
Terminal value, discounted: SGD 0.00
Enterprise value: SGD -4.3bn
Less net debt: SGD 1.1bn
Equity value: SGD -5.4bn

Exit at 9.9x EBITDA

Value per shareSGD 4.19

128% of EV

Terminal value, undiscounted: SGD 26.0bn
Terminal value, discounted: SGD 19.7bn
Enterprise value: SGD 15.5bn
Less net debt: SGD 1.1bn
Equity value: SGD 14.3bn

Sensitivity

Value per share (SGD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

Long-run growth
Discount rate	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
4.39%	-1.66	-1.66	-1.66	-1.66	-1.66
5.39%	-1.62	-1.62	-1.62	-1.62	-1.62
6.39%	-1.58	-1.58	-1.58	-1.58	-1.58
7.39%	-1.54	-1.54	-1.54	-1.54	-1.54
8.39%	-1.51	-1.51	-1.51	-1.51	-1.51

Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 2.12. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

Priced In

What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

Input	Model	Implied	Gap
EBIT margin	-3.0%	-0.3%	+2.7pp

Download as Excel

Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.