9CI.SI · SES · Real Estate
CapitaLand Investment Limited
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
SGD -0.44
Market price
SGD 2.60
Implied upside
-116.8%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Current EV/EBITDA of 27.7x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (SGD). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | SGD 1.9bn | SGD 1.7bn | SGD 1.6bn | SGD 1.4bn | SGD 1.3bn | -9.5% |
| EBIT | SGD 492.8m | SGD 446.1m | SGD 403.8m | SGD 365.5m | SGD 330.9m | -9.5% |
| NOPAT | SGD 369.6m | SGD 334.6m | SGD 302.9m | SGD 274.1m | SGD 248.1m | -9.5% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | SGD 102.8m | SGD 93.0m | SGD 84.2m | SGD 76.2m | SGD 69.0m | -9.5% |
| Less capital expenditure | SGD -76.7m | SGD -69.4m | SGD -62.9m | SGD -56.9m | SGD -51.5m | -9.5% |
| Less increase in working capital | SGD -35.9m | SGD -32.5m | SGD -29.4m | SGD -26.6m | SGD -24.1m | -9.5% |
| Free cashflow to firm | SGD 359.8m | SGD 325.7m | SGD 294.8m | SGD 266.9m | SGD 241.5m | -9.5% |
| Discount factor | 0.9683 | 0.9079 | 0.8513 | 0.7982 | 0.7485 | - |
| Present value | SGD 348.4m | SGD 295.7m | SGD 251.0m | SGD 213.0m | SGD 180.8m | -15.1% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | SGD 1.3bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.728 | Reported 0.594, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 8.93% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.20% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | SGD 13.0bn | 60.5% of capital |
| Total debt | SGD 8.5bn | 39.5% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 25.0% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 6.65% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
70% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- SGD 241.5m
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- SGD 255.2m
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (37.6% of NOPAT)
- SGD -95.9m
- Capitalised
- SGD 159.3m
- ROIC (WACC floor)
- 6.7%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 3.9bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 2.9bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 4.2bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 6.4bn
- Equity value
- SGD -2.2bn
Exit at 20.0x EBITDA
82% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 8.0bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 6.0bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 7.3bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 6.4bn
- Equity value
- SGD 834.5m
Sensitivity
Value per share (SGD) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 4.65% | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.09 |
| 5.65% | -0.31 | -0.30 | -0.30 | -0.30 | -0.29 |
| 6.65% | -0.44 | -0.44 | -0.44 | -0.43 | -0.43 |
| 7.65% | -0.54 | -0.54 | -0.54 | -0.54 | -0.53 |
| 8.65% | -0.62 | -0.62 | -0.62 | -0.62 | -0.61 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 2.60. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | -9.5% | 25.6% | +35.1pp |
| Discount rate | 6.7% | 2.6% | -4.0pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.