DCF Studio

    A · NYQ · Healthcare

    Agilent Technologies, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 66.27

    Market price

    USD 171.99

    Implied upside

    -61.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-10-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 28.3x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 66.27-61.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 113.96-33.7%
    Market price
    USD 171.99

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 7.5bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 8.9bnUSD 9.4bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 11.1bn+4.5%
    EBITUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bn+4.5%
    NOPATUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bn+4.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 312.9mUSD 333.0mUSD 352.7mUSD 371.9mUSD 390.3mUSD 407.7mUSD 423.9mUSD 438.7mUSD 451.8mUSD 463.1m+4.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -380.1mUSD -427.2mUSD -476.4mUSD -527.6mUSD -580.2mUSD -633.8mUSD -687.7mUSD -741.4mUSD -794.2mUSD -845.5m+9.3%
    Capex, % of revenue5.1%5.4%5.6%5.9%6.2%6.5%6.8%7.1%7.3%7.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -152.0mUSD -132.6mUSD -130.3mUSD -126.6mUSD -121.5mUSD -114.9mUSD -106.8mUSD -97.4mUSD -86.6mUSD -74.5m-7.6%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn+3.6%
    Discount factor0.95580.87320.79770.72870.66570.60820.55560.50760.46370.4236-
    Present valueUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 989.0mUSD 934.3mUSD 878.4mUSD 822.0mUSD 765.5mUSD 709.5m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 9.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.159Reported 1.237, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.80%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 13.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 48.5bn93.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.4bn6.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate12.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.46%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 66.27

    53% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (17.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -382.4m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    13.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 25.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 10.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.9bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 113.96

    72% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 57.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 24.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 34.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.6bn
    Equity value
    USD 32.5bn

    Spread between methods: 53%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.46%89.8292.1094.9698.59103.31
    8.46%75.8276.8778.2079.8882.01
    9.46%65.3765.7566.2766.9567.84
    10.46%57.2757.2857.3457.4957.74
    11.46%50.8250.6150.4250.2750.17

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 171.99. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year0.5%4.8%17.0%
    EBIT margin23.6%21.9%52.5%
    Discount rate-9.5%5.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.