DCF Studio

    AAPL · NMS · Technology

    Apple Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 167.39

    Market price

    USD 338.32

    Implied upside

    -50.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-09-30

    Current EV/EBITDA of 34.4x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 167.39-50.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 241.09-28.7%
    Market price
    USD 338.32

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn107bn215bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 526.1bnUSD 571.7bnUSD 616.8bnUSD 660.7bnUSD 702.6bnUSD 741.8bnUSD 777.5bnUSD 808.9bnUSD 835.3bnUSD 856.2bn+5.6%
    EBITUSD 162.6bnUSD 176.6bnUSD 190.6bnUSD 204.1bnUSD 217.1bnUSD 229.2bnUSD 240.2bnUSD 249.9bnUSD 258.1bnUSD 264.6bn+5.6%
    NOPATUSD 136.7bnUSD 148.5bnUSD 160.3bnUSD 171.7bnUSD 182.6bnUSD 192.7bnUSD 202.0bnUSD 210.2bnUSD 217.0bnUSD 222.5bn+5.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 15.2bnUSD 16.5bnUSD 17.8bnUSD 19.1bnUSD 20.3bnUSD 21.4bnUSD 22.5bnUSD 23.4bnUSD 24.1bnUSD 24.7bn+5.6%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -14.5bnUSD -16.6bnUSD -18.7bnUSD -20.9bnUSD -23.2bnUSD -25.5bnUSD -27.7bnUSD -30.0bnUSD -32.1bnUSD -34.0bn+9.9%
    Capex, % of revenue2.8%2.9%3.0%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.6%3.7%3.8%4.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 7.8bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.5bn+16.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 145.2bnUSD 151.7bnUSD 162.6bnUSD 173.0bnUSD 182.7bnUSD 191.5bnUSD 199.3bnUSD 205.8bnUSD 211.0bnUSD 214.7bn+4.4%
    Discount factor0.95650.87510.80060.73240.67000.61300.56080.51310.46940.4294-
    Present valueUSD 138.9bnUSD 132.8bnUSD 130.2bnUSD 126.7bnUSD 122.4bnUSD 117.4bnUSD 111.7bnUSD 105.6bnUSD 99.0bnUSD 92.2bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 1176.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.060Reported 1.089, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.38%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 4937.5bn98.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 98.7bn2.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate15.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.31%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 167.39

    54% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 214.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 222.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (4.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -9.3bn
    Capitalised
    USD 213.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    60.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 3210.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 1378.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 2555.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 44.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 2511.6bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 241.09

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 5785.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 2484.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 3661.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 44.0bn
    Equity value
    USD 3617.4bn

    Spread between methods: 36%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.31%212.67223.99237.73254.72276.25
    8.31%180.62187.91196.49206.75219.19
    9.31%156.83161.73167.39173.99181.76
    10.31%138.47141.88145.75150.19155.32
    11.31%123.89126.31129.04132.12135.63

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 338.32. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year1.8%7.5%16.2%
    EBIT margin32.0%30.9%62.2%
    Discount rate-9.3%5.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.