DCF Studio

    ABI.BR · BRU · Consumer Defensive

    Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 44.74

    Market price

    EUR 67.60

    Implied upside

    -33.8%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · USD model at 0.8704

    AdjustedReports in USD, trades in EUR. Modelled in USD, converted at the end.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 44.74-33.8%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 56.56-16.3%
    Market price
    EUR 67.60

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn6bn13bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 59.8bnUSD 60.4bnUSD 60.9bnUSD 61.4bnUSD 62.0bn+0.9%
    EBITUSD 15.1bnUSD 15.3bnUSD 15.4bnUSD 15.5bnUSD 15.7bn+0.9%
    NOPATUSD 11.4bnUSD 11.5bnUSD 11.6bnUSD 11.7bnUSD 11.8bn+0.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 5.7bn+0.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.5bnUSD -4.5bnUSD -4.5bn+0.9%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -30.8mUSD -31.1mUSD -31.4mUSD -31.7mUSD -31.9m+0.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 12.5bnUSD 12.6bnUSD 12.7bnUSD 12.8bnUSD 12.9bn+0.9%
    Discount factor0.96350.89450.83040.77090.7157-
    Present valueUSD 12.0bnUSD 11.2bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 9.9bnUSD 9.2bn-6.3%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 52.8bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.855Reported 0.783, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.75%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.32%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 133.1bn64.6% of capital
    Total debtUSD 73.0bn35.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate24.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.72%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 51.40

    68% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 12.9bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 11.8bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -3.8bn
    Capitalised
    USD 8.0bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 156.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 112.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 164.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 61.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 103.7bn

    Exit at 9.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 64.99

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 194.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 139.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 192.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 61.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 131.1bn

    Spread between methods: 23%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.72%84.1587.8392.5798.93108.02
    6.72%63.9265.0166.2867.8269.74
    7.72%50.8651.1351.4051.6751.94
    8.72%42.0042.2342.4642.6942.92
    9.72%34.9635.1635.3635.5535.75

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 77.67. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year0.9%7.7%+6.8pp
    EBIT margin25.3%33.7%+8.4pp
    Discount rate7.7%6.2%-1.5pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.