DCF Studio

    ABN.AS · AMS · Financial Services

    ABN AMRO Bank N.V.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 8.00

    Market price

    EUR 43.43

    Implied upside

    -81.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 3.9% of revenue against depreciation of 2.0%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 8.00-81.6%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 45.86+5.6%
    Market price
    EUR 43.43

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 9.1bnEUR 9.5bnEUR 10.0bnEUR 10.4bnEUR 10.9bn+4.6%
    EBITEUR 3.3bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.6bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 4.0bn+4.6%
    NOPATEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.7bnEUR 2.9bnEUR 3.0bn+4.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 183.8mEUR 192.1mEUR 200.9mEUR 210.0mEUR 219.6m+4.6%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -351.7mEUR -367.7mEUR -384.4mEUR -402.0mEUR -420.3m+4.6%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -397.6mEUR -415.8mEUR -434.7mEUR -454.5mEUR -475.2m+4.6%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.9bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.3bn+4.6%
    Discount factor0.96140.88870.82150.75940.7020-
    Present valueEUR 1.9bnEUR 1.8bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.6bn-3.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 8.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.824Reported 0.737, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.55%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt10.09%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 35.4bn30.8% of capital
    Total debtEUR 79.4bn69.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.18%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 8.00

    75% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 2.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 3.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.6% of NOPAT)
    EUR -918.7m
    Capitalised
    EUR 2.1bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 37.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 26.4bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 35.1bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 28.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 6.6bn

    Exit at 19.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 45.86

    87% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 82.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 57.9bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 66.6bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 28.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 38.1bn

    Spread between methods: 141%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.18%22.0522.2722.5022.7222.94
    7.18%13.8614.0414.2314.4114.60
    8.18%7.697.858.008.168.31
    9.18%2.883.023.153.283.42
    10.18%-0.96-0.85-0.73-0.62-0.50

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 43.43. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year4.6%23.1%+18.6pp
    EBIT margin36.5%65.1%+28.6pp
    Discount rate8.2%4.6%-3.6pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.