DCF Studio

    ABNB · NMS · Consumer Cyclical

    Airbnb, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 79.87

    Market price

    USD 171.11

    Implied upside

    -53.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.
    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.07% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.00% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.0% of revenue against depreciation of 0.5%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 36.8x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 79.87-53.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 117.32-31.4%
    Market price
    USD 171.11

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 14.2bnUSD 15.8bnUSD 17.5bnUSD 19.1bnUSD 20.7bnUSD 22.1bnUSD 23.4bnUSD 24.5bnUSD 25.4bnUSD 26.1bn+7.0%
    EBITUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.3bn+7.0%
    NOPATUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.3bn+7.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 70.7mUSD 78.8mUSD 87.1mUSD 95.2mUSD 102.9mUSD 110.2mUSD 116.7mUSD 122.2mUSD 126.7mUSD 129.8m+7.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -141.8mUSD -185.6mUSD -235.2mUSD -290.2mUSD -349.7mUSD -412.6mUSD -477.5mUSD -542.8mUSD -606.6mUSD -666.9m+18.8%
    Capex, % of revenue1.0%1.2%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.0%2.2%2.4%2.6%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -6.7mUSD -5.7mUSD -5.7mUSD -5.6mUSD -5.4mUSD -5.0mUSD -4.5mUSD -3.9mUSD -3.1mUSD -2.2m-11.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.7bn+5.8%
    Discount factor0.95430.86910.79140.72070.65640.59770.54430.49570.45140.4111-
    Present valueUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 19.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.182Reported 1.272, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.89%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 102.5bn98.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.1bn2.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.81%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 79.87

    53% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (12.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -537.0m
    Capitalised
    USD 3.7bn
    ROIC (reported)
    19.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 52.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 21.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 40.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD -8.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 49.8bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 117.32

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 108.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 44.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 64.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD -8.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 73.1bn

    Spread between methods: 38%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.81%98.96101.56104.72108.62113.52
    8.81%87.0288.5290.3292.4995.14
    9.81%77.9878.8479.8781.1082.57
    10.81%70.9071.3871.9472.6373.44
    11.81%65.2265.4465.7366.0866.51

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 171.11. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year13.4%7.8%19.1%
    EBIT margin23.0%20.4%48.6%
    Discount rate-9.8%5.6%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.