DCF Studio

    AC.PA · PAR · Consumer Cyclical

    Accor SA

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 48.61

    Market price

    EUR 45.58

    Implied upside

    +6.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 48.61+6.6%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 62.93+38.1%
    Market price
    EUR 45.58

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 6.2bnEUR 6.8bnEUR 7.5bnEUR 8.3bnEUR 9.1bn+10.1%
    EBITEUR 841.5mEUR 926.5mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bn+10.1%
    NOPATEUR 676.4mEUR 744.8mEUR 820.1mEUR 903.0mEUR 994.3m+10.1%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 354.7mEUR 390.6mEUR 430.1mEUR 473.5mEUR 521.4m+10.1%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -254.1mEUR -279.8mEUR -308.1mEUR -339.3mEUR -373.6m+10.1%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -81.9mEUR -90.2mEUR -99.3mEUR -109.3mEUR -120.4m+10.1%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 695.1mEUR 765.4mEUR 842.8mEUR 928.0mEUR 1.0bn+10.1%
    Discount factor0.96650.90290.84350.78800.7361-
    Present valueEUR 671.8mEUR 691.1mEUR 710.9mEUR 731.2mEUR 752.1m+2.9%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 3.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.907Reported 0.861, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.64%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt3.93%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 10.5bn70.9% of capital
    Total debtEUR 4.3bn29.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.6%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.05%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 48.61

    76% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 1.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 994.3m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.2% of NOPAT)
    EUR -320.3m
    Capitalised
    EUR 674.0m
    ROIC (reported)
    7.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 15.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 11.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 14.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 3.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 11.7bn

    Exit at 11.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 62.93

    80% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 19.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 14.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 18.2bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 3.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 15.1bn

    Spread between methods: 26%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.05%79.4385.3093.39105.34124.87
    6.05%59.6761.9164.7168.3773.39
    7.05%47.0247.7548.6149.6250.87
    8.05%38.5338.7138.9039.0839.26
    9.05%32.7832.9433.0933.2533.40

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 45.58. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year10.1%8.8%-1.3pp
    EBIT margin13.6%12.9%-0.7pp
    Discount rate7.0%7.3%+0.3pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.