DCF Studio

    ACA.PA · PAR · Financial Services

    Crédit Agricole S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 136.99

    Market price

    EUR 18.19

    Implied upside

    +653.1%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 136.99+653.1%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 132.56+628.8%
    Market price
    EUR 18.19

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn5bn9bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 28.5bnEUR 30.8bnEUR 33.4bnEUR 36.2bnEUR 39.2bn+8.3%
    EBITEUR 11.4bnEUR 12.4bnEUR 13.4bnEUR 14.5bnEUR 15.7bn+8.3%
    NOPATEUR 8.8bnEUR 9.5bnEUR 10.3bnEUR 11.2bnEUR 12.1bn+8.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.8bnEUR 2.0bn+8.3%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -1.2bnEUR -1.3bnEUR -1.4bnEUR -1.6bnEUR -1.7bn+8.3%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -2.2bnEUR -2.4bnEUR -2.6bnEUR -2.8bnEUR -3.0bn+8.3%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 6.8bnEUR 7.4bnEUR 8.0bnEUR 8.7bnEUR 9.4bn+8.3%
    Discount factor0.96340.89430.83000.77050.7151-
    Present valueEUR 6.6bnEUR 6.6bnEUR 6.6bnEUR 6.7bnEUR 6.7bn+0.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 33.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.871Reported 0.807, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.42%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt9.89%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 55.2bn15.0% of capital
    Total debtEUR 313.0bn85.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate23.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.74%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 136.99

    78% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 9.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 12.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.3% of NOPAT)
    EUR -3.9bn
    Capitalised
    EUR 8.2bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 160.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 114.7bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 147.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -266.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 414.7bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 132.56

    75% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 141.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 101.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 134.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -266.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 401.3bn

    Spread between methods: 3%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.74%154.70154.97155.24155.51155.78
    6.74%144.30144.52144.74144.97145.19
    7.74%136.62136.81136.99137.18137.36
    8.74%130.72130.88131.03131.19131.35
    9.74%126.05126.19126.32126.46126.59

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 18.19. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.