ACGL · NMS · Financial Services
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
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Implied value per share
USD 436.18
Market price
USD 109.31
Implied upside
+299.0%
10-year forecast · Excess returns over book equity · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31
NoteA financial, valued on excess returns over book equity.
Excess Returns
- Return on equity
- 24.4%
- Payout
- 1%
- Cost of equity
- 6.84%
- Return on equity by the final year
- 20.0%
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening book equity | USD 23.4bn | USD 27.6bn | USD 32.2bn | USD 37.0bn | USD 41.8bn | USD 46.5bn | USD 50.9bn | USD 54.8bn | USD 58.1bn | USD 60.6bn |
| Return on equity | 23.9% | 23.5% | 23.1% | 22.6% | 22.2% | 21.8% | 21.3% | 20.9% | 20.4% | 20.0% |
| Excess return | USD 4.0bn | USD 4.6bn | USD 5.2bn | USD 5.8bn | USD 6.4bn | USD 6.9bn | USD 7.4bn | USD 7.7bn | USD 7.9bn | USD 8.0bn |
| Present value | USD 3.7bn | USD 4.0bn | USD 4.3bn | USD 4.5bn | USD 4.6bn | USD 4.7bn | USD 4.6bn | USD 4.5bn | USD 4.4bn | USD 4.1bn |
| Book equity | USD 23.4bn |
| Present value of excess returns | USD 43.4bn |
| Terminal, growing at 2.50% | USD 97.1bn |
| Equity value | USD 164.0bn |
| Per share | USD 436.18 |
Discount Rate
| Risk-free rate | 4.89% | US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.23% | Damodaran, January 2026 |
| Beta | 0.460 | Reported 0.194, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 6.84% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
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Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.