DCF Studio

    ACS.MC · MCE · Industrials

    ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 89.56

    Market price

    EUR 93.40

    Implied upside

    -4.1%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 89.56-4.1%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 140.77+50.7%
    Market price
    EUR 93.40

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 56.8bnEUR 64.8bnEUR 73.9bnEUR 84.3bnEUR 96.1bn+14.0%
    EBITEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.9bn+14.0%
    NOPATEUR 916.8mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.6bn+14.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.4bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.8bn+14.0%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -755.2mEUR -861.2mEUR -982.1mEUR -1.1bnEUR -1.3bn+14.0%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 446.4mEUR 509.0mEUR 580.5mEUR 661.9mEUR 754.8m-14.0%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.9bnEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.8bn+14.0%
    Discount factor0.96640.90240.84270.78700.7349-
    Present valueEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.8bnEUR 1.9bnEUR 2.1bn+6.5%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 9.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.733Reported 0.601, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.96%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.12%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 24.4bn61.4% of capital
    Total debtEUR 15.3bn38.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.08%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 89.56

    64% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 2.8bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 1.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (35.3% of NOPAT)
    EUR -547.1m
    Capitalised
    EUR 1.0bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 22.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 16.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 25.6bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 2.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 23.5bn

    Exit at 11.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 140.77

    77% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 40.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 29.9bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 39.1bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 2.1bn
    Equity value
    EUR 36.9bn

    Spread between methods: 44%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.08%122.86123.33123.79124.26124.72
    6.08%103.16103.53103.91104.28104.65
    7.08%88.9489.2589.5689.8690.17
    8.08%78.1878.4478.7078.9579.21
    9.08%69.7469.9670.1870.4070.62

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 93.40. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year14.0%14.9%+0.9pp
    EBIT margin2.0%2.1%+0.1pp
    Discount rate7.1%6.8%-0.3pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.