DCF Studio

    ACX.MC · MCE · Basic Materials

    Acerinox, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 3.76

    Market price

    EUR 17.18

    Implied upside

    -78.1%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 3.76-78.1%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 10.79-37.2%
    Market price
    EUR 17.18

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m130m260mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 5.0bnEUR 4.4bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 2.9bn-12.7%
    EBITEUR 345.4mEUR 301.5mEUR 263.2mEUR 229.8mEUR 200.6m-12.7%
    NOPATEUR 259.1mEUR 226.2mEUR 197.4mEUR 172.4mEUR 150.5m-12.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 140.6mEUR 122.8mEUR 107.2mEUR 93.6mEUR 81.7m-12.7%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -168.6mEUR -147.2mEUR -128.5mEUR -112.2mEUR -97.9m-12.7%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 28.4mEUR 24.8mEUR 21.7mEUR 18.9mEUR 16.5m+12.7%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 259.5mEUR 226.6mEUR 197.8mEUR 172.7mEUR 150.7m-12.7%
    Discount factor0.96040.88580.81700.75360.6951-
    Present valueEUR 249.2mEUR 200.7mEUR 161.6mEUR 130.1mEUR 104.8m-19.5%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 846.4m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.058Reported 1.086, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.07%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 4.3bn66.5% of capital
    Total debtEUR 2.2bn33.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.42%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 3.76

    60% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 150.7m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 150.5m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.7% of NOPAT)
    EUR -44.7m
    Capitalised
    EUR 105.8m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    8.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 1.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 1.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 2.1bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 937.9m

    Exit at 15.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 10.79

    78% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 4.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 3.0bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 3.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 2.7bn

    Spread between methods: 97%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.42%6.006.046.076.116.15
    7.42%4.704.734.764.794.82
    8.42%3.713.743.763.793.81
    9.42%2.932.952.972.993.01
    10.42%2.292.312.332.352.37

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 17.18. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-12.7%10.4%+23.1pp
    EBIT margin6.8%17.7%+10.8pp
    Discount rate8.4%4.2%-4.2pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.