DCF Studio

    AD.AS · AMS · Consumer Defensive

    Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 55.01

    Market price

    EUR 31.60

    Implied upside

    +74.1%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 55.01+74.1%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 38.82+22.8%
    Market price
    EUR 31.60

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 94.2bnEUR 96.1bnEUR 98.1bnEUR 100.0bnEUR 102.0bn+2.0%
    EBITEUR 2.9bnEUR 3.0bnEUR 3.0bnEUR 3.1bnEUR 3.1bn+2.0%
    NOPATEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.4bn+2.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 3.7bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 3.9bnEUR 4.0bn+2.0%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -2.6bnEUR -2.6bnEUR -2.7bnEUR -2.7bnEUR -2.8bn+2.0%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -29.9mEUR -30.5mEUR -31.1mEUR -31.7mEUR -32.4m+2.0%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 3.3bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.6bn+2.0%
    Discount factor0.97140.91660.86490.81610.7700-
    Present valueEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.1bnEUR 3.0bnEUR 2.9bnEUR 2.8bn-3.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 15.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.546Reported 0.323, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.75%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.25%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 27.6bn60.0% of capital
    Total debtEUR 18.4bn40.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.98%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 55.01

    77% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 3.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 2.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (24.2% of NOPAT)
    EUR -692.9m
    Capitalised
    EUR 2.2bn
    ROIC (reported)
    10.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 64.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 49.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 64.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 14.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 49.8bn

    Exit at 6.3x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 38.82

    70% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 45.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 34.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 49.6bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 14.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 35.1bn

    Spread between methods: 35%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.98%94.32111.76140.91199.71381.03
    4.98%64.3971.2080.6994.93118.70
    5.98%47.7850.9655.0160.3867.88
    6.98%37.1938.7940.7343.1246.17
    7.98%29.8430.6631.6132.7334.08

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 31.60. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year2.0%-7.0%-9.0pp
    EBIT margin3.1%1.8%-1.2pp
    Discount rate6.0%8.0%+2.0pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.