DCF Studio

    ADDT-B.ST · STO · Industrials

    Addtech AB (publ.)

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    SEK 114.52

    Market price

    SEK 327.20

    Implied upside

    -65.0%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.97% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.92% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 23.4x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    SEK 114.52-65.0%
    Exit multiple
    SEK 267.88-18.1%
    Market price
    SEK 327.20

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (SEK). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todaySEK
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31CAGR
    RevenueSEK 24.2bnSEK 25.8bnSEK 27.5bnSEK 29.4bnSEK 31.3bn+6.7%
    EBITSEK 3.0bnSEK 3.2bnSEK 3.4bnSEK 3.6bnSEK 3.9bn+6.7%
    NOPATSEK 2.3bnSEK 2.5bnSEK 2.6bnSEK 2.8bnSEK 3.0bn+6.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationSEK 1.0bnSEK 1.1bnSEK 1.1bnSEK 1.2bnSEK 1.3bn+6.7%
    Less capital expenditureSEK -464.8mSEK -495.7mSEK -528.7mSEK -563.9mSEK -601.4m+6.7%
    Less increase in working capitalSEK -54.4mSEK -58.0mSEK -61.9mSEK -66.0mSEK -70.4m+6.7%
    Free cashflow to firmSEK 2.8bnSEK 3.0bnSEK 3.2bnSEK 3.4bnSEK 3.6bn+6.7%
    Discount factor0.95060.85910.77630.70160.6340-
    Present valueSEK 2.7bnSEK 2.6bnSEK 2.5bnSEK 2.4bnSEK 2.3bn-3.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastSEK 12.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.086Reported 1.128, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.26%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationSEK 88.3bn92.5% of capital
    Total debtSEK 7.1bn7.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate22.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC10.66%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareSEK 114.52

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    SEK 3.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    SEK 3.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (14.1% of NOPAT)
    SEK -497.9m
    Capitalised
    SEK 3.0bn
    ROIC (reported)
    17.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    SEK 38.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    SEK 24.2bn
    Enterprise value
    SEK 36.6bn
    Less net debt
    SEK 5.7bn
    Equity value
    SEK 30.9bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareSEK 267.88

    84% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    SEK 103.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    SEK 65.6bn
    Enterprise value
    SEK 78.0bn
    Less net debt
    SEK 5.7bn
    Equity value
    SEK 72.4bn

    Spread between methods: 80%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (SEK) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    8.66%143.98149.50155.87163.33172.18
    9.66%124.43128.13132.32137.11142.63
    10.66%109.14111.69114.52117.70121.28
    11.66%96.8598.63100.58102.74105.13
    12.66%86.7588.0189.3790.8592.47

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 327.20. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year6.7%32.3%+25.6pp
    EBIT margin12.4%35.5%+23.1pp
    Discount rate10.7%5.5%-5.1pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.