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    ADM · NYQ · Consumer Defensive

    Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 57.18

    Market price

    USD 75.77

    Implied upside

    -24.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.6% of revenue against depreciation of 1.2%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 57.18-24.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 103.63+36.8%
    Market price
    USD 75.77

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 86.8bnUSD 91.2bnUSD 95.6bnUSD 99.8bnUSD 103.9bnUSD 107.8bnUSD 111.6bnUSD 115.1bnUSD 118.3bnUSD 121.3bn+3.8%
    EBITUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bn+3.8%
    NOPATUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bn+3.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bn+3.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.8bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.3bn+5.8%
    Capex, % of revenue1.6%1.6%1.6%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.9%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -789.1mUSD -529.1mUSD -520.7mUSD -508.6mUSD -492.5mUSD -472.7mUSD -448.9mUSD -421.4mUSD -390.3mUSD -355.6m-8.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bn+6.2%
    Discount factor0.96480.89810.83610.77830.72450.67440.62780.58440.54400.5064-
    Present valueUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 11.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.742Reported 0.615, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.03%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.27%Risk-free + 138bp, the spread for a BB+ rating at 2.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.7%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 36.5bn78.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 9.8bn21.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate17.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.42%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 57.18

    67% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.0bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 3.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.2% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 2.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    7.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 48.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 24.5bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 36.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 8.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 27.7bn

    Exit at 17.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 103.63

    80% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 92.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 46.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 58.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 8.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 50.2bn

    Spread between methods: 58%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.42%101.31105.16110.73119.10132.44
    6.42%75.6576.1677.0978.6281.06
    7.42%58.7557.9457.1856.4955.90
    8.42%47.8446.9245.9945.0744.14
    9.42%39.8839.0938.3137.5336.74

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 75.77. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-7.5%4.2%7.6%
    EBIT margin4.3%3.2%3.9%
    Discount rate-7.4%6.5%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.