DCF Studio

    ADSK · NMS · Technology

    Autodesk, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 85.50

    Market price

    USD 216.95

    Implied upside

    -60.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 1.19% of revenue against depreciation of 2.79%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 2.79% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 22.9x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 85.50-60.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 204.00-6.0%
    Market price
    USD 216.95

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.1bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 10.4bnUSD 11.7bnUSD 13.2bn+12.9%
    EBITUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.9bn+12.9%
    NOPATUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.3bn+12.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 227.2mUSD 256.5mUSD 289.7mUSD 327.1mUSD 369.3m+12.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -227.2mUSD -256.5mUSD -289.7mUSD -327.1mUSD -369.3m+12.9%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -672.5mUSD -759.3mUSD -857.4mUSD -968.2mUSD -1.1bn+12.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 752.5mUSD 849.7mUSD 959.4mUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bn+12.9%
    Discount factor0.94790.85170.76530.68760.6179-
    Present valueUSD 713.3mUSD 723.7mUSD 734.3mUSD 745.0mUSD 755.8m+1.5%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 3.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.00%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.207Reported 1.309, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.64%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt7.00%Assumed: risk-free + 2bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 45.3bn94.3% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.7bn5.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC11.29%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 85.50

    80% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (11.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -254.9m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    22.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 24.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 14.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 18.5bn
    Less net debt
    USD 137.0m
    Equity value
    USD 18.4bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 204.00

    92% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 65.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 40.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 44.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 137.0m
    Equity value
    USD 43.9bn

    Spread between methods: 82%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    9.29%105.11109.37114.24119.86126.41
    10.29%91.5894.6097.99101.82106.19
    11.29%80.8883.0885.5088.2091.23
    12.29%72.2273.8575.6277.5779.73
    13.29%65.0966.3167.6369.0670.63

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 216.95. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year12.9%44.5%+31.6pp
    EBIT margin21.9%50.2%+28.4pp
    Discount rate11.3%6.3%-5.0pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.