DCF Studio

    ADSK · NMS · Technology

    Autodesk, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 119.15

    Market price

    USD 257.91

    Implied upside

    -53.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-01-31

    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages 1.19% of revenue against depreciation of 2.79%. A business cannot depreciate more than it invests indefinitely. Capex has been set to 2.79% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. Override it if the reported figure is right.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 27.2x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 119.15-53.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 197.33-23.5%
    Market price
    USD 257.91

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.3bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 10.2bnUSD 11.1bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.7bnUSD 13.5bnUSD 14.1bnUSD 14.6bnUSD 15.0bn+6.7%
    EBITUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bn+6.7%
    NOPATUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bn+6.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 232.4mUSD 258.0mUSD 283.7mUSD 309.0mUSD 333.1mUSD 355.7mUSD 375.9mUSD 393.3mUSD 407.4mUSD 417.5m+6.7%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -232.4mUSD -277.8mUSD -327.2mUSD -380.0mUSD -435.3mUSD -492.1mUSD -548.9mUSD -604.5mUSD -657.3mUSD -705.8m+13.1%
    Capex, % of revenue2.8%3.0%3.2%3.4%3.6%3.9%4.1%4.3%4.5%4.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -157.8mUSD -129.5mUSD -129.9mUSD -127.6mUSD -122.3mUSD -113.9mUSD -102.4mUSD -88.0mUSD -70.9mUSD -51.5m-11.7%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bn+6.4%
    Discount factor0.95520.87140.79500.72530.66170.60370.55070.50250.45840.4182-
    Present valueUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 953.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 11.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.164Reported 1.245, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.82%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 53.9bn95.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.7bn4.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.9%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.61%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 119.15

    55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.6bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (11.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -288.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 2.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    22.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 33.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 14.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 25.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 137.0m
    Equity value
    USD 25.6bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 197.33

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 73.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 30.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 42.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 137.0m
    Equity value
    USD 42.4bn

    Spread between methods: 49%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.61%154.45160.20167.17175.80186.66
    8.61%131.70135.13139.21144.12150.09
    9.61%114.63116.71119.15122.05125.51
    10.61%101.35102.60104.08105.81107.85
    11.61%90.7491.4792.3393.3594.55

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 257.91. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year12.9%7.6%17.7%
    EBIT margin24.9%21.9%46.5%
    Discount rate-9.6%5.8%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.