DCF Studio

    ADYEN.AS · AMS · Technology

    Adyen N.V.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 369.25

    Market price

    EUR 879.10

    Implied upside

    -58.0%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 369.25-58.0%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 388.82-55.8%
    Market price
    EUR 879.10

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m274m547mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 1.8bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 784.1mEUR 522.7mEUR 348.4m-33.3%
    EBITEUR 549.8mEUR 366.5mEUR 244.3mEUR 162.9mEUR 108.6m-33.3%
    NOPATEUR 416.9mEUR 277.9mEUR 185.3mEUR 123.5mEUR 82.3m-33.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 66.7mEUR 44.5mEUR 29.6mEUR 19.8mEUR 13.2m-33.3%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -62.4mEUR -41.6mEUR -27.7mEUR -18.5mEUR -12.3m-33.3%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 126.2mEUR 84.1mEUR 56.1mEUR 37.4mEUR 24.9m+33.3%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 547.4mEUR 364.9mEUR 243.2mEUR 162.1mEUR 108.1m-33.3%
    Discount factor0.93480.81680.71370.62360.5449-
    Present valueEUR 511.7mEUR 298.0mEUR 173.6mEUR 101.1mEUR 58.9m-41.8%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 1.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.588Reported 1.877, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity14.52%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt8.20%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 27.8bn99.1% of capital
    Total debtEUR 252.4m0.9% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate24.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC14.44%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 369.25

    22% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 108.1m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 82.7m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (15.6% of NOPAT)
    EUR -12.9m
    Capitalised
    EUR 69.8m
    ROIC (reported)
    16.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 599.0m
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 326.4m
    Enterprise value
    EUR 1.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -10.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 11.7bn

    Exit at 14.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 388.82

    45% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 1.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 944.8m
    Enterprise value
    EUR 2.1bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -10.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 12.3bn

    Spread between methods: 5%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    12.44%372.90373.12373.36373.61373.89
    13.44%370.84370.99371.14371.31371.49
    14.44%369.06369.15369.25369.36369.47
    15.44%367.49367.55367.61367.67367.74
    16.44%366.12366.16366.20366.24366.28

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 879.10. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-33.3%38.1%+71.4pp
    Discount rate14.4%2.9%-11.6pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.