DCF Studio

    AEE · NYQ · Utilities

    Ameren Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 1.62

    Market price

    USD 111.42

    Implied upside

    -98.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Wrong toolThis model values the shares at 1.5% of the market price. A gap that size is a modelling failure rather than a view - most often an unusable beta, a currency or units mismatch, or a cashflow base that does not represent the business. Read the figures below as diagnostics, not as a call.
    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 49.5% of revenue against depreciation of 19.5%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 1.62-98.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 73.56-34.0%
    Market price
    USD 111.42

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -1bn0bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 9.1bnUSD 9.7bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 10.8bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 11.9bnUSD 12.3bnUSD 12.8bnUSD 13.1bnUSD 13.5bn+4.4%
    EBITUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.8bn+4.4%
    NOPATUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bn+4.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.6bn+4.4%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -4.5bnUSD -4.6bnUSD -4.6bnUSD -4.5bnUSD -4.5bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.2bnUSD -4.0bnUSD -3.8bnUSD -3.6bn-2.6%
    Capex, % of revenue49.5%46.9%44.4%41.8%39.3%36.7%34.1%31.6%29.0%26.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -5.5mUSD -10.1mUSD -9.9mUSD -9.6mUSD -9.2mUSD -8.7mUSD -8.1mUSD -7.4mUSD -6.6mUSD -5.7m+0.5%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -1.1bnUSD -886.6mUSD -674.9mUSD -433.0mUSD -162.2mUSD 135.7mUSD 458.3mUSD 802.6mUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.5bn-
    Discount factor0.96830.90800.85140.79830.74860.70190.65820.61710.57870.5426-
    Present valueUSD -1.0bnUSD -805.0mUSD -574.6mUSD -345.7mUSD -121.5mUSD 95.3mUSD 301.7mUSD 495.3mUSD 673.9mUSD 835.8m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -474.1m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.613Reported 0.423, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.49%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.00%Risk-free + 111bp, the spread for a BBB rating at 2.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 30.8bn60.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 19.8bn39.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate11.1%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.65%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 1.62

    102% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (37.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -931.9m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.5bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 38.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 20.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 20.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 19.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 441.4m

    Exit at 13.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 73.56

    101% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 74.3bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 40.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 39.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD 19.8bn
    Equity value
    USD 20.0bn

    Spread between methods: 191%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.65%63.9364.9367.5273.1485.76
    5.65%26.2624.2022.1420.0818.02
    6.65%4.933.271.62-0.03-1.68
    7.65%-10.49-11.84-13.20-14.56-15.92
    8.65%-22.06-23.19-24.33-25.46-26.60

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 111.42. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.4%4.4%13.7%
    EBIT margin23.0%20.7%39.3%
    Discount rate-6.6%4.2%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.