DCF Studio

    AENA.MC · MCE · Industrials

    Aena S.M.E., S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 29.66

    Market price

    EUR 25.38

    Implied upside

    +16.9%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 29.66+16.9%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 41.13+62.1%
    Market price
    EUR 25.38

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 7.2bnEUR 8.3bnEUR 9.5bnEUR 10.8bnEUR 12.4bn+14.5%
    EBITEUR 3.0bnEUR 3.4bnEUR 3.9bnEUR 4.5bnEUR 5.2bn+14.5%
    NOPATEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 3.0bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 4.0bn+14.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.9bn+14.5%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -1.4bnEUR -1.6bnEUR -1.8bnEUR -2.1bnEUR -2.4bn+14.5%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -64.6mEUR -74.0mEUR -84.7mEUR -97.0mEUR -111.1m+14.5%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 3.0bnEUR 3.4bn+14.5%
    Discount factor0.95950.88340.81330.74870.6893-
    Present valueEUR 1.9bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.4bn+5.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 10.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.839Reported 0.759, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.65%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 38.1bn83.9% of capital
    Total debtEUR 7.3bn16.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate23.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.62%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 29.66

    78% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 3.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 4.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (18.6% of NOPAT)
    EUR -765.1m
    Capitalised
    EUR 3.3bn
    ROIC (reported)
    13.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 56.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 38.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 49.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 4.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 44.5bn

    Exit at 11.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 41.13

    84% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 81.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 55.8bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 66.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 4.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 61.7bn

    Spread between methods: 32%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.62%40.4442.8645.8549.6554.65
    7.62%33.1034.5136.1738.1840.67
    8.62%27.8328.6829.6630.8032.15
    9.62%23.8724.4024.9825.6526.41
    10.62%20.7921.1121.4621.8522.29

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 25.38. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year14.5%11.0%-3.5pp
    EBIT margin41.6%36.2%-5.4pp
    Discount rate8.6%9.5%+0.9pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.