DCF Studio

    AGN.AS · AMS · Financial Services

    Aegon Ltd.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 17.97

    Market price

    EUR 7.90

    Implied upside

    +127.4%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    AdjustedOnly 3 year(s) of history available to anchor assumptions on.
    AdjustedConsensus rests on as few as 1 analyst estimate(s).
    AdjustedReported capital expenditure averages just 0.37% of revenue, which is too low to be the company's real investment - property trusts and similar structures invest through lines that are not reported as capex. Capex has been set to 1.00% of revenue so the forecast is not handed free growth. The accounts do not separate depreciation from amortisation, so the combined charge is used - if a large part of it is amortisation of an acquisition, the reported capex is probably right and this substitution is not. Override it if the reported figure is right.
    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 1.0% of revenue against depreciation of -0.5%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 17.97+127.4%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 15.47+95.9%
    Market price
    EUR 7.90

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    -7509743790-37548718950FY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 31.1bnEUR 36.0bnEUR 41.6bnEUR 48.2bnEUR 55.8bn+15.7%
    EBITEUR 551.5mEUR 638.3mEUR 738.7mEUR 855.0mEUR 989.5m+15.7%
    NOPATEUR 517.2mEUR 598.6mEUR 692.8mEUR 801.8mEUR 928.0m+15.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR -165.1mEUR -191.1mEUR -221.2mEUR -256.0mEUR -296.2m-15.7%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -310.9mEUR -359.8mEUR -416.4mEUR -482.0mEUR -557.8m+15.7%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -4.2bnEUR -4.9bnEUR -5.7bnEUR -6.6bnEUR -7.6bn+15.7%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR -4.2bnEUR -4.8bnEUR -5.6bnEUR -6.5bnEUR -7.5bn-15.7%
    Discount factor0.96310.89340.82870.76870.7131-
    Present valueEUR -4.0bnEUR -4.3bnEUR -4.6bnEUR -5.0bnEUR -5.4bn-7.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR -23.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.744Reported 0.618, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.04%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 11.7bn75.8% of capital
    Total debtEUR 3.7bn24.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate6.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.80%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 17.97

    -59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR -7.5bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 928.0m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (32.0% of NOPAT)
    EUR -297.3m
    Capitalised
    EUR 630.7m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    7.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 12.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 8.7bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR -14.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -48.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 34.1bn

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 15.47

    -20% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 5.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 4.0bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR -19.4bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -48.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 29.4bn

    Spread between methods: 15%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.80%19.4719.5419.6219.7319.86
    6.80%18.5118.5318.5618.5918.61
    7.80%17.9217.9517.9717.9918.01
    8.80%17.5417.5617.5817.6017.62
    9.80%17.2917.3117.3217.3417.36

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 7.90. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year15.7%26.1%+10.4pp
    EBIT margin1.8%-4.6%-6.4pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.