DCF Studio

    AIR.PA · PAR · Industrials

    Airbus SE

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 110.95

    Market price

    EUR 193.38

    Implied upside

    -42.6%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 110.95-42.6%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 225.19+16.4%
    Market price
    EUR 193.38

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn7bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 79.1bnEUR 85.2bnEUR 91.7bnEUR 98.8bnEUR 106.4bn+7.7%
    EBITEUR 5.8bnEUR 6.3bnEUR 6.8bnEUR 7.3bnEUR 7.9bn+7.7%
    NOPATEUR 4.5bnEUR 4.8bnEUR 5.2bnEUR 5.6bnEUR 6.0bn+7.7%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 4.1bnEUR 4.4bn+7.7%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -3.9bnEUR -4.2bnEUR -4.5bnEUR -4.8bnEUR -5.2bn+7.7%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.4bn-7.7%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 4.9bnEUR 5.3bnEUR 5.7bnEUR 6.1bnEUR 6.6bn+7.7%
    Discount factor0.96010.88500.81590.75210.6933-
    Present valueEUR 4.7bnEUR 4.7bnEUR 4.6bnEUR 4.6bnEUR 4.6bn-0.7%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 23.2bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate3.20%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.918Reported 0.878, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.71%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.91%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 153.1bn93.3% of capital
    Total debtEUR 11.0bn6.7% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate23.1%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.48%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 110.95

    71% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 6.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 6.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (20.2% of NOPAT)
    EUR -1.2bn
    Capitalised
    EUR 4.8bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 82.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 57.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 80.5bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -7.3bn
    Equity value
    EUR 87.7bn

    Exit at 17.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 225.19

    86% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 213.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 147.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 170.8bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -7.3bn
    Equity value
    EUR 178.1bn

    Spread between methods: 68%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.48%143.05149.82158.24169.01183.32
    7.48%121.55125.35129.88135.36142.16
    8.48%106.19108.40110.95113.92117.45
    9.48%94.6695.9597.4099.05100.93
    10.48%85.6786.4187.2288.1189.10

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 193.38. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year7.7%21.0%+13.3pp
    EBIT margin7.4%13.5%+6.1pp
    Discount rate8.5%5.7%-2.8pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.