AJBU.SI · SES · Real Estate
Keppel DC REIT
Also onConsensus Drift
Implied value per share
SGD 2.19
Market price
SGD 2.15
Implied upside
+1.7%
5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case
Current EV/EBITDA of 23.9x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.
Value Per Share
Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.
Forecast Cashflows
Reporting currency (SGD). Outflows negative.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | SGD 515.3m | SGD 601.6m | SGD 702.4m | SGD 820.1m | SGD 957.5m | +16.8% |
| EBIT | SGD 387.3m | SGD 452.1m | SGD 527.9m | SGD 616.3m | SGD 719.6m | +16.8% |
| NOPAT | SGD 349.8m | SGD 408.4m | SGD 476.8m | SGD 556.7m | SGD 650.0m | +16.8% |
| Add depreciation & amortisation | SGD 0.00 | SGD 0.00 | SGD 0.00 | SGD 0.00 | SGD 0.00 | - |
| Less capital expenditure | SGD -56.5m | SGD -65.9m | SGD -77.0m | SGD -89.9m | SGD -105.0m | +16.8% |
| Less increase in working capital | SGD -55.3m | SGD -64.5m | SGD -75.3m | SGD -88.0m | SGD -102.7m | +16.8% |
| Free cashflow to firm | SGD 238.0m | SGD 277.9m | SGD 324.5m | SGD 378.8m | SGD 442.3m | +16.8% |
| Discount factor | 0.9614 | 0.8885 | 0.8211 | 0.7589 | 0.7014 | - |
| Present value | SGD 228.8m | SGD 246.9m | SGD 266.4m | SGD 287.5m | SGD 310.2m | +7.9% |
| Present Value Of The Forecast | SGD 1.3bn | |||||
Discount Rate
Source shown per component. All overridable above.
| Risk-free rate | 4.20% | USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption) |
| Equity risk premium | 6.50% | Market assumption |
| Beta | 0.890 | Reported 0.836, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 9.99% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
| Cost of debt | 4.20% | Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower) |
| Market capitalisation | SGD 5.9bn | 71.2% of capital |
| Total debt | SGD 2.4bn | 28.8% of capital, book value as a proxy |
| Tax rate | 9.7% | Effective, capped at statutory |
| WACC | 8.20% | E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t) |
Terminal Value
Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.
Perpetuity growth at 2.50%
81% of EV
- Forecast FCFF, final year
- SGD 442.3m
- Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
- SGD 650.0m
- Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (30.5% of NOPAT)
- SGD -198.1m
- Capitalised
- SGD 451.8m
- ROIC (WACC floor)
- 8.2%
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 8.1bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 5.7bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 7.0bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 2.0bn
- Equity value
- SGD 5.0bn
Exit at 20.0x EBITDA
88% of EV
- Terminal value, undiscounted
- SGD 14.4bn
- Terminal value, discounted
- SGD 10.1bn
- Enterprise value
- SGD 11.4bn
- Less net debt
- SGD 2.0bn
- Equity value
- SGD 9.4bn
Spread between methods: 61%.
Sensitivity
Value per share (SGD) by discount rate and long-run growth.
| Long-run growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
| 6.20% | 3.27 | 3.29 | 3.31 | 3.33 | 3.34 |
| 7.20% | 2.64 | 2.65 | 2.67 | 2.68 | 2.70 |
| 8.20% | 2.16 | 2.17 | 2.19 | 2.20 | 2.21 |
| 9.20% | 1.79 | 1.80 | 1.81 | 1.82 | 1.83 |
| 10.20% | 1.49 | 1.50 | 1.51 | 1.52 | 1.53 |
Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 2.15. Shading: distance from this model's own value.
Priced In
What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.
| Input | Model | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, every year | 16.8% | 16.4% | -0.3pp |
| EBIT margin | 75.1% | 74.3% | -0.8pp |
| Discount rate | 8.2% | 8.3% | +0.1pp |
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.