AJG · NYQ · Financial Services
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck
Implied value per share
USD 149.37
Market price
USD 278.89
Implied upside
-46.4%
10-year forecast · Excess returns over book equity · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31
NoteA financial, valued on excess returns over book equity.
Excess Returns
- Return on equity
- 10.6%
- Payout
- 45%
- Cost of equity
- 7.60%
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening book equity | USD 23.3bn | USD 24.6bn | USD 25.9bn | USD 27.1bn | USD 28.4bn | USD 29.6bn | USD 30.7bn | USD 31.8bn | USD 32.8bn | USD 33.7bn |
| Return on equity | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% |
| Excess return | USD 700.5m | USD 739.2m | USD 777.7m | USD 815.5m | USD 852.3m | USD 888.0m | USD 922.2m | USD 954.6m | USD 984.9m | USD 1.0bn |
| Present value | USD 651.0m | USD 638.4m | USD 624.2m | USD 608.2m | USD 590.8m | USD 572.1m | USD 552.1m | USD 531.1m | USD 509.2m | USD 486.7m |
| Book equity | USD 23.3bn |
| Present value of excess returns | USD 5.8bn |
| Terminal, growing at 2.50% | USD 9.8bn |
| Equity value | USD 38.9bn |
| Per share | USD 149.37 |
Discount Rate
| Risk-free rate | 4.89% | US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.23% | Damodaran, January 2026 |
| Beta | 0.641 | Reported 0.464, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume) |
| Cost of equity | 7.60% | Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium |
Download as Excel
Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.
Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.