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    ALB · NYQ · Basic Materials

    Albemarle Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD -11.01

    Market price

    USD 90.56

    Implied upside

    -112.2%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 20.6% of revenue against depreciation of 8.1%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD -11.01-112.2%
    Exit multiple
    USD 40.05-55.8%
    Market price
    USD 90.56

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    -612m-190m231mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.2bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.6bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 6.9bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 7.2bn+2.0%
    EBITUSD 382.5mUSD 388.1mUSD 394.3mUSD 401.2mUSD 408.7mUSD 416.8mUSD 425.6mUSD 435.2mUSD 445.5mUSD 456.6m+2.0%
    NOPATUSD 302.1mUSD 306.6mUSD 311.5mUSD 316.9mUSD 322.8mUSD 329.3mUSD 336.2mUSD 343.8mUSD 351.9mUSD 360.7m+2.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 490.7mUSD 498.0mUSD 506.0mUSD 514.7mUSD 524.3mUSD 534.8mUSD 546.1mUSD 558.3mUSD 571.6mUSD 585.9m+2.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.0bnUSD -953.1mUSD -889.7mUSD -824.3mUSD -756.4mUSD -685.7m-6.5%
    Capex, % of revenue20.6%19.4%18.1%16.9%15.6%14.4%13.2%11.9%10.7%9.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -154.5mUSD -14.9mUSD -16.5mUSD -18.1mUSD -19.7mUSD -21.5mUSD -23.3mUSD -25.3mUSD -27.3mUSD -29.4m-16.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD -611.5mUSD -402.6mUSD -332.9mUSD -261.3mUSD -187.3mUSD -110.5mUSD -30.7mUSD 52.6mUSD 139.8mUSD 231.4m-
    Discount factor0.95770.87830.80560.73880.67760.62150.57000.52280.47950.4398-
    Present valueUSD -585.6mUSD -353.6mUSD -268.2mUSD -193.0mUSD -126.9mUSD -68.7mUSD -17.5mUSD 27.5mUSD 67.0mUSD 101.8m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD -1.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.240Reported 1.358, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.14%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Risk-free + 200bp, the spread for a C rating at 0.3x interest cover, capped at 200bp because one year's cover is too noisy to charge more. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 6.0%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 10.7bn76.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.3bn23.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.03%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD -11.01

    470% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 231.4m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 360.7m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -99.8m
    Capitalised
    USD 260.9m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    9.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 4.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 1.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 383.0m
    Less net debt
    USD 1.7bn
    Equity value
    USD -1.3bn

    Exit at 17.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 40.05

    122% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 17.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 7.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 6.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 4.7bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.03%-2.76-3.29-3.83-4.36-4.89
    8.03%-7.06-7.50-7.94-8.39-8.83
    9.03%-10.27-10.64-11.01-11.38-11.76
    10.03%-12.72-13.04-13.35-13.67-13.99
    11.03%-14.63-14.90-15.17-15.45-15.72

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 90.56. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-11.1%3.5%33.9%
    EBIT margin33.9%6.3%26.6%
    Discount rate-9.0%2.7%
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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.