DCF Studio

    ALD.AX · ASX · Energy

    Ampol Limited

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    AUD 6.61

    Market price

    AUD 43.13

    Implied upside

    -84.7%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedSome line items were not reported and have been derived. Each one is labelled in the workings below.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    AUD 6.61-84.7%
    Exit multiple
    AUD 23.69-45.1%
    Market price
    AUD 43.13

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (AUD). Outflows negative.

    0m361m722mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayAUD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueAUD 34.8bnAUD 33.5bnAUD 32.1bnAUD 30.9bnAUD 29.6bn-4.0%
    EBITAUD 462.4mAUD 444.1mAUD 426.5mAUD 409.5mAUD 393.3m-4.0%
    NOPATAUD 362.2mAUD 347.8mAUD 334.0mAUD 320.8mAUD 308.1m-4.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationAUD 463.4mAUD 445.0mAUD 427.4mAUD 410.4mAUD 394.1m-4.0%
    Less capital expenditureAUD -577.5mAUD -554.6mAUD -532.6mAUD -511.4mAUD -491.1m-4.0%
    Less increase in working capitalAUD 473.5mAUD 454.7mAUD 436.7mAUD 419.3mAUD 402.7m+4.0%
    Free cashflow to firmAUD 721.6mAUD 693.0mAUD 665.5mAUD 639.1mAUD 613.7m-4.0%
    Discount factor0.96820.90750.85060.79730.7474-
    Present valueAUD 698.7mAUD 628.9mAUD 566.1mAUD 509.6mAUD 458.7m-10.0%
    Present Value Of The ForecastAUD 2.9bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate5.35%Australian Government 10-year (RBA F2)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.420Reported 0.135, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.87%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.35%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationAUD 10.3bn67.8% of capital
    Total debtAUD 4.9bn32.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.69%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareAUD 6.61

    55% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    AUD 613.7m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    AUD 308.1m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (37.4% of NOPAT)
    AUD -115.2m
    Capitalised
    AUD 192.9m
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    AUD 4.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    AUD 3.5bn
    Enterprise value
    AUD 6.4bn
    Less net debt
    AUD 4.8bn
    Equity value
    AUD 1.6bn

    Exit at 12.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareAUD 23.69

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    AUD 10.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    AUD 7.6bn
    Enterprise value
    AUD 10.5bn
    Less net debt
    AUD 4.8bn
    Equity value
    AUD 5.7bn

    Spread between methods: 113%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (AUD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.69%17.8619.6022.0926.0233.18
    5.69%10.6811.1011.6312.3313.30
    6.69%6.466.546.616.686.75
    7.69%3.783.843.903.964.02
    8.69%1.701.751.801.851.90

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 43.13. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    EBIT margin1.3%3.7%+2.3pp
    Discount rate6.7%3.8%-2.9pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.