DCF Studio

    ALGN · NMS · Healthcare

    Align Technology, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 90.32

    Market price

    USD 154.13

    Implied upside

    -41.4%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 90.32-41.4%
    Exit multiple
    USD 123.06-20.2%
    Market price
    USD 154.13

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0m263m527mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.3bn+2.8%
    EBITUSD 678.8mUSD 699.5mUSD 720.3mUSD 741.2mUSD 762.2mUSD 783.4mUSD 804.6mUSD 825.8mUSD 847.0mUSD 868.1m+2.8%
    NOPATUSD 536.3mUSD 552.6mUSD 569.0mUSD 585.6mUSD 602.2mUSD 618.9mUSD 635.6mUSD 652.3mUSD 669.1mUSD 685.8m+2.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 170.9mUSD 176.1mUSD 181.3mUSD 186.6mUSD 191.9mUSD 197.2mUSD 202.5mUSD 207.8mUSD 213.2mUSD 218.5m+2.8%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -184.1mUSD -199.1mUSD -214.7mUSD -230.9mUSD -247.8mUSD -265.2mUSD -283.2mUSD -301.8mUSD -321.0mUSD -340.7m+7.1%
    Capex, % of revenue4.5%4.7%4.9%5.1%5.3%5.6%5.8%6.0%6.2%6.5%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -25.8mUSD -35.9mUSD -36.2mUSD -36.4mUSD -36.6mUSD -36.7mUSD -36.8mUSD -36.9mUSD -36.9mUSD -36.8m+4.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 497.2mUSD 493.6mUSD 499.4mUSD 504.8mUSD 509.7mUSD 514.1mUSD 518.1mUSD 521.5mUSD 524.5mUSD 526.8m+0.6%
    Discount factor0.94850.85330.76770.69060.62130.55890.50290.45240.40700.3661-
    Present valueUSD 471.6mUSD 421.2mUSD 383.4mUSD 348.6mUSD 316.7mUSD 287.4mUSD 260.5mUSD 235.9mUSD 213.4mUSD 192.9m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 3.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.494Reported 1.738, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity11.22%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.89%Assumed: risk-free + 200bp (interest expense not reported)
    Market capitalisationUSD 10.9bn99.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 114.4m1.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC11.16%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 90.32

    44% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 526.8m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 685.8m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (17.8% of NOPAT)
    USD -122.2m
    Capitalised
    USD 563.6m
    ROIC (reported)
    14.0%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 6.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 2.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 5.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD -980.5m
    Equity value
    USD 6.6bn

    Exit at 12.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 123.06

    61% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 13.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 4.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 8.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD -980.5m
    Equity value
    USD 8.9bn

    Spread between methods: 31%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    9.16%110.55111.24112.16113.33114.85
    10.16%99.4599.5899.81100.17100.69
    11.16%90.6890.4790.3290.2290.20
    12.16%83.5683.1682.7982.4482.12
    13.16%77.6877.1776.6776.1875.70

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 154.13. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year2.6%2.7%11.9%
    EBIT margin17.5%16.5%29.5%
    Discount rate-11.2%7.1%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.