DCF Studio

    ALV.DE · GER · Financial Services

    Allianz SE

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    No perpetuity value

    Market price

    EUR 443.30

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    Wrong toolThis line has no market capitalisation, which means it is not ordinary shares - typically a hybrid, preference line, note or unlisted stub. A discounted cashflow values a claim on the whole business, so applying it here attributes all of the group’s revenue to a security that has no such claim. Its value is its coupon and call schedule. Look up the ordinary line instead.
    Wrong toolTerminal growth of 2.50% must be below the WACC of 1.94% for a perpetuity to converge.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    No usable EV/EBITDA (EBITDA is not positive), so the exit multiple falls back to 8x.

    Value Per Share

    Exit multiple
    EUR 2605.76+487.8%
    Market price
    EUR 443.30

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn17bn34bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 164.7bnEUR 197.4bnEUR 236.6bnEUR 283.5bnEUR 339.8bn+19.8%
    EBITEUR 17.7bnEUR 21.2bnEUR 25.5bnEUR 30.5bnEUR 36.6bn+19.8%
    NOPATEUR 13.2bnEUR 15.8bnEUR 19.0bnEUR 22.7bnEUR 27.3bn+19.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 3.2bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 4.6bnEUR 5.5bnEUR 6.6bn+19.8%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -2.8bnEUR -3.4bnEUR -4.0bnEUR -4.8bnEUR -5.8bn+19.8%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 3.0bnEUR 3.6bnEUR 4.3bnEUR 5.1bnEUR 6.2bn-19.8%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 16.6bnEUR 19.9bnEUR 23.8bnEUR 28.5bnEUR 34.2bn+19.8%
    Discount factor0.99040.97160.95310.93500.9172-
    Present valueEUR 16.4bnEUR 19.3bnEUR 22.7bnEUR 26.7bnEUR 31.4bn+17.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 116.5bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate2.60%EUR assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.00%Market assumption
    Beta0.779Reported 0.670, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.27%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt2.60%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 0.000.0% of capital
    Total debtEUR 35.3bn100.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC1.94%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Terminal growth of 2.50% must be below the WACC of 1.94% for a perpetuity to converge.

    Exit at 8.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 2605.76

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 345.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 316.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 433.1bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -564.8bn
    Equity value
    EUR 997.9bn

    Spread between methods: 38%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    -0.06%—————
    0.94%—————
    1.94%14736.34————
    2.94%5552.087272.6512908.45——
    3.94%3898.734313.495014.566459.4711191.52

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 443.30. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

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    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.