DCF Studio

    AMCR · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Amcor plc

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 40.70

    Market price

    USD 49.02

    Implied upside

    -17.0%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2026-06-30

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 40.70-17.0%
    Exit multiple
    USD 41.61-15.1%
    Market price
    USD 49.02

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36CAGR
    RevenueUSD 23.9bnUSD 23.8bnUSD 23.8bnUSD 23.9bnUSD 24.0bnUSD 24.3bnUSD 24.6bnUSD 25.0bnUSD 25.6bnUSD 26.2bn+1.0%
    EBITUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bn+1.0%
    NOPATUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bn+1.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bn+1.0%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -895.3mUSD -979.7mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.2bnUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.9bn+8.4%
    Capex, % of revenue3.7%4.1%4.5%4.9%5.2%5.6%6.0%6.3%6.7%7.1%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -48.3mUSD 13.0mUSD 2.5mUSD -7.8mUSD -18.2mUSD -28.8mUSD -39.6mUSD -50.9mUSD -62.6mUSD -75.1m+5.0%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bn-4.5%
    Discount factor0.96840.90820.85180.79880.74920.70260.65900.61800.57960.5436-
    Present valueUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 939.5mUSD 838.5mUSD 747.2m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 13.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.690Reported 0.538, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.81%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.3x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.5%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 22.6bn60.4% of capital
    Total debtUSD 14.9bn39.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate16.7%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.63%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 40.70

    60% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.4bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (28.7% of NOPAT)
    USD -583.8m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.4bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.7%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 36.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 19.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 32.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 18.9bn

    Exit at 9.9x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 41.61

    60% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 36.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 20.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 33.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 13.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 19.3bn

    Spread between methods: 2%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.63%79.2487.0398.83118.31155.72
    5.63%54.3456.9260.5365.7873.81
    6.63%39.1239.7640.7042.0944.13
    7.63%28.8328.6428.5428.5528.71
    8.63%21.4020.8520.3019.7519.21

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 49.02. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year17.0%1.1%2.5%
    EBIT margin9.6%9.3%10.5%
    Discount rate-6.6%6.1%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.