DCF Studio

    AMD · NMS · Technology

    Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 137.25

    Market price

    USD 466.84

    Implied upside

    -70.6%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 112.8x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 137.25-70.6%
    Exit multiple
    USD 346.51-25.8%
    Market price
    USD 466.84

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn25bn49bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 51.0bnUSD 76.5bnUSD 110.2bnUSD 152.2bnUSD 201.2bnUSD 254.0bnUSD 305.6bnUSD 349.6bnUSD 379.1bnUSD 388.5bn+25.3%
    EBITUSD 3.3bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 7.1bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 13.0bnUSD 16.4bnUSD 19.8bnUSD 22.6bnUSD 24.5bnUSD 25.1bn+25.3%
    NOPATUSD 2.7bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 5.8bnUSD 8.0bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 16.0bnUSD 18.3bnUSD 19.8bnUSD 20.3bn+25.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 6.9bnUSD 10.3bnUSD 14.8bnUSD 20.5bnUSD 27.1bnUSD 34.2bnUSD 41.1bnUSD 47.1bnUSD 51.0bnUSD 52.3bn+25.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.2bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -3.3bnUSD -5.1bnUSD -7.4bnUSD -10.1bnUSD -13.1bnUSD -16.1bnUSD -18.7bnUSD -20.4bn+36.7%
    Capex, % of revenue2.4%2.7%3.0%3.3%3.7%4.0%4.3%4.6%4.9%5.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -5.1bnUSD -7.9bnUSD -10.4bnUSD -13.0bnUSD -15.1bnUSD -16.3bnUSD -16.0bnUSD -13.6bnUSD -9.1bnUSD -2.9bn-5.9%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 3.3bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 10.4bnUSD 15.1bnUSD 21.0bnUSD 28.0bnUSD 35.6bnUSD 43.0bnUSD 49.3bn+35.3%
    Discount factor0.93890.82760.72950.64300.56680.49960.44040.38820.34220.3016-
    Present valueUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 8.5bnUSD 10.5bnUSD 12.3bnUSD 13.8bnUSD 14.7bnUSD 14.9bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 93.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta2.033Reported 2.542, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity13.49%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 28.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 762.1bn99.5% of capital
    Total debtUSD 3.8bn0.5% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate19.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC13.45%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 137.25

    57% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 49.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 54.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (18.6% of NOPAT)
    USD -10.1bn
    Capitalised
    USD 44.2bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    13.4%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 413.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 124.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 217.8bn
    Less net debt
    USD -6.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 224.5bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 346.51

    83% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 1548.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 467.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 560.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD -6.7bn
    Equity value
    USD 566.9bn

    Spread between methods: 87%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    11.45%176.08174.04171.99169.95167.90
    12.45%156.62154.85153.07151.30149.52
    13.45%140.35138.80137.25135.70134.14
    14.45%126.59125.23123.86122.49121.13
    15.45%114.84113.63112.42111.21110.00

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 466.84. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year13.6%27.3%46.8%
    EBIT margin10.7%6.5%43.0%
    Discount rate-13.4%5.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.