DCF Studio

    AME · NYQ · Industrials

    AMETEK, Inc.

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 180.71

    Market price

    USD 241.91

    Implied upside

    -25.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 24.6x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 180.71-25.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 293.94+21.5%
    Market price
    USD 241.91

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn2bn4bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 8.5bnUSD 9.8bnUSD 11.3bnUSD 12.7bnUSD 14.1bnUSD 15.4bnUSD 16.6bnUSD 17.6bnUSD 18.4bnUSD 18.8bn+9.3%
    EBITUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.9bnUSD 4.2bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bn+9.3%
    NOPATUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bnUSD 3.9bn+9.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 455.1mUSD 529.2mUSD 606.2mUSD 684.1mUSD 760.1mUSD 831.5mUSD 895.3mUSD 948.5mUSD 988.6mUSD 1.0bn+9.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -167.2mUSD -246.3mUSD -341.6mUSD -452.6mUSD -577.4mUSD -713.2mUSD -855.6mUSD -999.5mUSD -1.1bnUSD -1.3bn+25.2%
    Capex, % of revenue2.0%2.5%3.0%3.6%4.1%4.6%5.1%5.7%6.2%6.7%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -239.0mUSD -313.5mUSD -326.0mUSD -329.3mUSD -321.7mUSD -302.1mUSD -269.8mUSD -225.2mUSD -169.5mUSD -104.6m-8.8%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 1.8bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.8bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bn+7.8%
    Discount factor0.95850.88050.80890.74320.68270.62720.57620.52940.48630.4468-
    Present valueUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 18.0bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.981Reported 0.971, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.04%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 23.5x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.6%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 55.5bn95.9% of capital
    Total debtUSD 2.3bn4.1% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate18.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.85%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 180.71

    59% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 4.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (20.3% of NOPAT)
    USD -907.9m
    Capitalised
    USD 3.6bn
    ROIC (reported)
    12.3%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 57.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 25.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 43.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 41.8bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 293.94

    74% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 116.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 51.8bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 69.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 1.9bn
    Equity value
    USD 68.0bn

    Spread between methods: 48%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.85%253.04260.65270.41283.17300.25
    7.85%209.66212.94217.14222.54229.57
    8.85%178.20179.25180.71182.68185.31
    9.85%154.38154.22154.24154.47154.98
    10.85%135.74134.92134.16133.48132.90

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 241.91. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year6.4%9.8%13.4%
    EBIT margin25.9%25.4%34.5%
    Discount rate-8.9%7.3%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.