DCF Studio

    AMP.MI · MIL · Healthcare

    Amplifon S.p.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 14.80

    Market price

    EUR 11.39

    Implied upside

    +29.9%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 14.80+29.9%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 19.46+70.8%
    Market price
    EUR 11.39

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m210m420mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 2.5bnEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.7bnEUR 2.8bnEUR 2.9bn+4.2%
    EBITEUR 266.8mEUR 277.9mEUR 289.5mEUR 301.6mEUR 314.2m+4.2%
    NOPATEUR 200.1mEUR 208.4mEUR 217.1mEUR 226.2mEUR 235.6m+4.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 305.0mEUR 317.7mEUR 331.0mEUR 344.8mEUR 359.2m+4.2%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -141.9mEUR -147.8mEUR -154.0mEUR -160.4mEUR -167.1m+4.2%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR -6.3mEUR -6.5mEUR -6.8mEUR -7.1mEUR -7.4m+4.2%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 356.9mEUR 371.8mEUR 387.3mEUR 403.5mEUR 420.3m+4.2%
    Discount factor0.96300.89300.82800.76780.7120-
    Present valueEUR 343.7mEUR 332.0mEUR 320.7mEUR 309.8mEUR 299.3m-3.4%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 1.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.994Reported 0.991, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity10.66%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 3.0bn62.4% of capital
    Total debtEUR 1.8bn37.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate25.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.84%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 14.80

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 420.3m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 328.5m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (29.6% of NOPAT)
    EUR -97.2m
    Capitalised
    EUR 231.3m
    ROIC (reported)
    8.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 4.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 3.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 4.8bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 3.3bn

    Exit at 8.7x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 19.46

    72% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 5.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 4.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 5.8bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 1.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 4.3bn

    Spread between methods: 27%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.84%23.0224.2225.7727.8330.74
    6.84%17.9318.4319.0419.7820.72
    7.84%14.4314.6014.8015.0215.28
    8.84%11.9812.0412.0912.1512.21
    9.84%10.2110.2610.3110.3610.41

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 11.39. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year4.2%-0.1%-4.2pp
    EBIT margin10.7%8.2%-2.5pp
    Discount rate7.8%9.2%+1.4pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.