DCF Studio

    AMRZ.SW · EBS · Basic Materials

    Amrize AG

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    CHF 66.11

    Market price

    CHF 31.01

    Implied upside

    +113.2%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · USD model at 0.8218

    AdjustedReports in USD, trades in CHF. Modelled in USD, converted at the end.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: CHF assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    CHF 66.11+113.2%
    Exit multiple
    CHF 36.83+18.8%
    Market price
    CHF 31.01

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueUSD 12.2bnUSD 12.6bnUSD 13.0bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 13.9bn+3.3%
    EBITUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bn+3.3%
    NOPATUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.0bn+3.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 906.9mUSD 936.6mUSD 967.2mUSD 998.9mUSD 1.0bn+3.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -674.2mUSD -696.2mUSD -719.0mUSD -742.6mUSD -766.9m+3.3%
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 47.6mUSD 49.2mUSD 50.8mUSD 52.5mUSD 54.2m-3.3%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.3bn+3.3%
    Discount factor0.97330.92190.87330.82720.7836-
    Present valueUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.8bn-2.2%
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 9.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate0.50%CHF assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium5.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.000As reported
    Cost of equity6.00%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.20%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationUSD 17.0bn72.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 6.3bn27.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate15.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC5.57%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 80.44

    81% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 2.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 2.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (28.0% of NOPAT)
    USD -587.8m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.5bn
    ROIC (reported)
    8.9%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 50.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 39.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 49.0bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 44.5bn

    Exit at 7.6x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 44.82

    68% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 25.4bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 19.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 29.2bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.4bn
    Equity value
    USD 24.8bn

    Spread between methods: 57%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    3.57%142.04173.28233.54399.252936.47
    4.57%94.73104.97120.07144.68192.13
    5.57%70.6274.8780.4488.1199.42
    6.57%55.9957.8960.2263.1666.99
    7.57%46.1646.9847.9449.0650.43

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 37.73. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year3.3%-10.2%-13.5pp
    EBIT margin16.6%7.9%-8.7pp
    Discount rate5.6%8.9%+3.3pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.