DCF Studio

    AMS.MC · MCE · Technology

    Amadeus IT Group, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 70.87

    Market price

    EUR 54.98

    Implied upside

    +28.9%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 70.87+28.9%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 87.38+58.9%
    Market price
    EUR 54.98

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn3bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 7.4bnEUR 8.4bnEUR 9.5bnEUR 10.7bnEUR 12.1bn+13.3%
    EBITEUR 1.9bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 2.7bnEUR 3.1bn+13.3%
    NOPATEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.9bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 2.4bn+13.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 927.9mEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.5bn+13.3%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -904.2mEUR -1.0bnEUR -1.2bnEUR -1.3bnEUR -1.5bn+13.3%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 87.2mEUR 98.8mEUR 111.9mEUR 126.7mEUR 143.5m-13.3%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.8bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.6bn+13.3%
    Discount factor0.96110.88790.82020.75770.7000-
    Present valueEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.8bn+4.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 8.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.729Reported 0.595, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.94%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 23.1bn87.7% of capital
    Total debtEUR 3.2bn12.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate20.8%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC8.25%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 70.87

    75% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 2.6bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 2.4bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (16.4% of NOPAT)
    EUR -399.1m
    Capitalised
    EUR 2.0bn
    ROIC (reported)
    15.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 36.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 25.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 33.7bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 2.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 31.4bn

    Exit at 10.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 87.38

    80% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 46.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 32.6bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 41.0bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 2.2bn
    Equity value
    EUR 38.8bn

    Spread between methods: 21%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    6.25%94.99101.59109.90120.74135.47
    7.25%77.8281.6686.2991.9799.14
    8.25%65.7368.1070.8774.1478.07
    9.25%56.7558.2760.0061.9864.29
    10.25%49.8250.8251.9253.1754.58

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 54.98. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year13.3%7.6%-5.6pp
    EBIT margin25.2%19.9%-5.4pp
    Discount rate8.2%9.8%+1.6pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.