DCF Studio

    AMT · NYQ · Real Estate

    American Tower Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 58.14

    Market price

    USD 188.30

    Implied upside

    -69.1%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 58.14-69.1%
    Exit multiple
    USD 165.50-12.1%
    Market price
    USD 188.30

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn3bn5bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 11.0bnUSD 11.4bnUSD 11.8bnUSD 12.2bnUSD 12.5bnUSD 12.9bnUSD 13.3bnUSD 13.6bnUSD 14.0bnUSD 14.3bn+2.9%
    EBITUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.2bnUSD 5.4bnUSD 5.5bnUSD 5.6bn+2.9%
    NOPATUSD 4.0bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 5.2bn+2.9%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 3.1bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.4bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bn+2.9%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.9bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.5bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.2bnUSD -3.6bnUSD -4.0bnUSD -4.4bnUSD -4.8bnUSD -5.2bn+11.9%
    Capex, % of revenue17.2%19.3%21.5%23.6%25.7%27.9%30.0%32.1%34.3%36.4%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -13.2mUSD -12.3mUSD -12.3mUSD -12.3mUSD -12.3mUSD -12.2mUSD -12.1mUSD -11.9mUSD -11.8mUSD -11.6m-1.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 5.0bnUSD 4.9bnUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.7bnUSD 4.6bnUSD 4.5bnUSD 4.3bnUSD 4.1bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 3.7bn-3.2%
    Discount factor0.96430.89680.83390.77550.72110.67060.62360.57990.53930.5015-
    Present valueUSD 4.8bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 4.0bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.0bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 1.9bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 32.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.894Reported 0.842, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.68%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.78%Risk-free + 89bp, the spread for a A- rating at 3.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.1%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 87.3bn66.0% of capital
    Total debtUSD 45.0bn34.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate8.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.54%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 58.14

    54% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 3.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 5.2bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (27.5% of NOPAT)
    USD -1.4bn
    Capitalised
    USD 3.8bn
    ROIC (reported)
    9.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 76.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 38.4bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 70.7bn
    Less net debt
    USD 43.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 27.3bn

    Exit at 18.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 165.50

    73% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 176.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 88.7bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 121.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 43.5bn
    Equity value
    USD 77.6bn

    Spread between methods: 96%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.54%125.16133.15144.29160.47185.37
    6.54%84.7587.2290.6695.51102.46
    7.54%57.6457.7358.1458.9460.30
    8.54%38.1537.1636.2335.3934.64
    9.54%24.1122.8921.6720.4519.23

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 188.30. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year3.3%3.0%10.7%
    EBIT margin46.3%39.3%75.5%
    Discount rate-7.5%5.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.