DCF Studio

    ANA.MC · MCE · Industrials

    Acciona, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 618.63

    Market price

    EUR 208.20

    Implied upside

    +197.1%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 14.9% of revenue against depreciation of 6.7%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 618.63+197.1%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 553.09+165.7%
    Market price
    EUR 208.20

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn1bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 24.7bnEUR 30.0bnEUR 36.6bnEUR 44.6bnEUR 54.3bn+21.8%
    EBITEUR 1.9bnEUR 2.3bnEUR 2.8bnEUR 3.5bnEUR 4.2bn+21.8%
    NOPATEUR 1.5bnEUR 1.8bnEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.7bnEUR 3.3bn+21.8%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 1.6bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 2.4bnEUR 3.0bnEUR 3.6bn+21.8%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -3.7bnEUR -4.5bnEUR -5.4bnEUR -6.6bnEUR -8.1bn+21.8%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.3bnEUR 1.6bnEUR 1.9bnEUR 2.3bn-21.8%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 525.8mEUR 640.6mEUR 780.3mEUR 950.5mEUR 1.2bn+21.8%
    Discount factor0.96830.90800.85130.79830.7485-
    Present valueEUR 509.2mEUR 581.6mEUR 664.3mEUR 758.8mEUR 866.7m+14.2%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 3.4bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.871Reported 0.808, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.86%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.19%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 11.1bn44.8% of capital
    Total debtEUR 13.6bn55.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate22.3%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.65%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 618.63

    92% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 1.2bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 3.3bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (37.6% of NOPAT)
    EUR -1.2bn
    Capitalised
    EUR 2.0bn
    ROIC (WACC floor)
    6.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 50.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 37.8bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 41.2bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 7.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 33.7bn

    Exit at 5.8x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 553.09

    91% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 45.8bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 34.3bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 37.6bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 7.5bn
    Equity value
    EUR 30.1bn

    Spread between methods: 11%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.65%1141.101230.981360.911567.321950.03
    5.65%808.37832.50863.13903.95962.07
    6.65%611.86615.24618.63622.02625.40
    7.65%495.83498.65501.48504.30507.12
    8.65%407.42409.81412.20414.60416.99

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 208.20. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year21.8%6.7%-15.1pp
    EBIT margin7.8%4.1%-3.7pp
    Discount rate6.6%12.5%+5.8pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.