DCF Studio

    ANE.MC · MCE · Utilities

    Corporación Acciona Energías Renovables, S.A.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR -4.41

    Market price

    EUR 21.48

    Implied upside

    -120.5%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 41.6% of revenue against depreciation of 14.7%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR -4.41-120.5%
    Exit multiple
    EUR -5.79-126.9%
    Market price
    EUR 21.48

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    -172604253-863021270FY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 2.6bnEUR 2.2bnEUR 2.0bnEUR 1.7bnEUR 1.5bn-12.4%
    EBITEUR 655.3mEUR 574.1mEUR 502.9mEUR 440.5mEUR 385.9m-12.4%
    NOPATEUR 509.5mEUR 446.4mEUR 391.0mEUR 342.5mEUR 300.1m-12.4%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 376.0mEUR 329.4mEUR 288.6mEUR 252.8mEUR 221.5m-12.4%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -1.1bnEUR -934.7mEUR -818.8mEUR -717.3mEUR -628.4m-12.4%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 8.8mEUR 7.7mEUR 6.8mEUR 5.9mEUR 5.2m+12.4%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR -172.6mEUR -151.2mEUR -132.5mEUR -116.0mEUR -101.6m+12.4%
    Discount factor0.96980.91210.85780.80670.7587-
    Present valueEUR -167.4mEUR -137.9mEUR -113.6mEUR -93.6mEUR -77.1m+17.6%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR -589.7m

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.676Reported 0.517, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.60%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt4.20%Floored at the risk-free rate (implied cost of debt was lower)
    Market capitalisationEUR 7.0bn57.4% of capital
    Total debtEUR 5.2bn42.6% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate22.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.33%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR -4.41

    118% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR -101.6m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 300.1m
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (36.7% of NOPAT)
    EUR -110.1m
    Capitalised
    EUR 189.9m
    ROIC (reported)
    6.8%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 5.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 3.9bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 3.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 4.7bn
    Equity value
    EUR -1.4bn

    Exit at 7.4x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR -5.79

    121% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 4.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 3.4bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 2.8bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 4.7bn
    Equity value
    EUR -1.9bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.33%5.017.2810.7516.7930.06
    5.33%-1.20-0.490.461.793.81
    6.33%-4.80-4.62-4.41-4.15-3.82
    7.33%-6.95-6.90-6.85-6.81-6.76
    8.33%-8.36-8.33-8.29-8.25-8.21

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 21.48. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year-12.4%11.6%+24.0pp
    EBIT margin25.6%63.9%+38.4pp
    Discount rate6.3%3.8%-2.5pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.