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    APA · NMS · Energy

    APA Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 95.45

    Market price

    USD 48.82

    Implied upside

    +95.5%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 27.8% of revenue against depreciation of 19.7%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the forecast tapers capex to maintenance at depreciation plus the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT), and the terminal year carries on from there. The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 95.45+95.5%
    Exit multiple
    USD 49.66+1.7%
    Market price
    USD 48.82

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 9.6bnUSD 8.6bnUSD 7.8bnUSD 7.2bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 6.4bnUSD 6.5bn-4.2%
    EBITUSD 3.6bnUSD 3.2bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.7bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.4bnUSD 2.5bn-4.2%
    NOPATUSD 2.9bnUSD 2.5bnUSD 2.3bnUSD 2.1bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.9bn-4.2%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bn-4.2%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.1bnUSD -1.9bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -1.6bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.5bnUSD -1.5bn-6.5%
    Capex, % of revenue27.8%27.2%26.6%26.0%25.4%24.8%24.2%23.6%23.0%22.3%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -79.1mUSD 114.4mUSD 86.4mUSD 64.2mUSD 46.2mUSD 31.1mUSD 17.8mUSD 5.7mUSD -5.9mUSD -17.6m-15.4%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.0bnUSD 2.0bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.7bnUSD 1.7bn-1.5%
    Discount factor0.96910.91020.85490.80290.75410.70820.66510.62470.58670.5510-
    Present valueUSD 1.9bnUSD 1.8bnUSD 1.6bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 983.9mUSD 962.4m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 13.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta0.519Reported 0.282, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity7.09%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 9.9x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 5.2%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 17.1bn78.8% of capital
    Total debtUSD 4.6bn21.2% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC6.47%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 95.45

    65% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.7bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.9bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (8.9% of NOPAT)
    USD -172.5m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.8bn
    ROIC (reported)
    28.1%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 45.5bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 25.1bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 38.3bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 34.3bn

    Exit at 4.2x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 49.66

    39% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 15.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 8.6bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 21.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 17.8bn

    Spread between methods: 63%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    4.47%144.52165.46197.16250.56359.11
    5.47%106.45116.16129.23147.70175.68
    6.47%83.6888.8895.45104.00115.52
    7.47%68.5271.5575.2379.7985.57
    8.47%57.7159.5661.7664.4067.62

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 48.82. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year-7.0%-3.1%-9.5%
    EBIT margin45.9%37.5%22.1%
    Discount rate-6.5%9.9%
    Download as Excel

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    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.