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    APH · NYQ · Technology

    Amphenol Corporation

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 59.62

    Market price

    USD 79.84

    Implied upside

    -25.3%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Current EV/EBITDA of 29.2x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 59.62-25.3%
    Exit multiple
    USD 112.72+41.2%
    Market price
    USD 79.84

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn8bn15bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 34.6bnUSD 43.3bnUSD 52.9bnUSD 63.1bnUSD 73.5bnUSD 83.6bnUSD 92.7bnUSD 100.2bnUSD 105.5bnUSD 108.2bn+13.5%
    EBITUSD 7.7bnUSD 9.6bnUSD 11.7bnUSD 14.0bnUSD 16.3bnUSD 18.5bnUSD 20.6bnUSD 22.2bnUSD 23.4bnUSD 24.0bn+13.5%
    NOPATUSD 6.1bnUSD 7.6bnUSD 9.3bnUSD 11.1bnUSD 12.9bnUSD 14.6bnUSD 16.2bnUSD 17.6bnUSD 18.5bnUSD 19.0bn+13.5%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.9bnUSD 2.2bnUSD 2.6bnUSD 2.9bnUSD 3.3bnUSD 3.5bnUSD 3.7bnUSD 3.8bn+13.5%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -1.3bnUSD -1.7bnUSD -2.2bnUSD -2.9bnUSD -3.5bnUSD -4.3bnUSD -5.0bnUSD -5.7bnUSD -6.3bnUSD -6.7bn+20.3%
    Capex, % of revenue3.7%4.0%4.2%4.5%4.8%5.1%5.4%5.7%5.9%6.2%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD -3.1bnUSD -2.3bnUSD -2.6bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.8bnUSD -2.7bnUSD -2.4bnUSD -2.0bnUSD -1.4bnUSD -704.7m-15.1%
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.9bnUSD 5.1bnUSD 6.3bnUSD 7.7bnUSD 9.2bnUSD 10.6bnUSD 12.1bnUSD 13.4bnUSD 14.5bnUSD 15.3bn+20.2%
    Discount factor0.95570.87280.79710.72790.66480.60710.55450.50640.46250.4224-
    Present valueUSD 2.8bnUSD 4.4bnUSD 5.0bnUSD 5.6bnUSD 6.1bnUSD 6.5bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.8bnUSD 6.7bnUSD 6.5bn-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 57.1bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.187Reported 1.279, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.91%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.29%Risk-free + 40bp, the spread for a AAA rating at 16.2x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 3.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 197.1bn92.7% of capital
    Total debtUSD 15.5bn7.3% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.0%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC9.50%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 59.62

    63% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 15.3bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 19.0bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (15.4% of NOPAT)
    USD -2.9bn
    Capitalised
    USD 16.0bn
    ROIC (reported)
    16.2%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 235.0bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 99.2bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 156.4bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 152.3bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 112.72

    80% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 556.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 234.9bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 292.1bn
    Less net debt
    USD 4.1bn
    Equity value
    USD 288.0bn

    Spread between methods: 62%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    7.50%81.7384.5488.0192.3597.90
    8.50%68.0569.5671.3973.6476.42
    9.50%57.9058.6759.6260.7762.18
    10.50%50.0850.4250.8651.4052.08
    11.50%43.8943.9744.1044.2944.55

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 79.84. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year22.3%16.7%20.6%
    EBIT margin25.9%22.2%28.8%
    Discount rate-9.5%7.9%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.