DCF Studio

    APTV · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical

    Aptiv PLC

    Also onShortfallConsensus DriftCrosscheck

    Implied value per share

    USD 61.82

    Market price

    USD 44.23

    Implied upside

    +39.8%

    10-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case · Price 2026-11-02 · Accounts to 2025-12-31

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    USD 61.82+39.8%
    Exit multiple
    USD 38.01-14.1%
    Market price
    USD 44.23

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (USD). Outflows negative.

    0bn1bn2bnFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayUSD
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35CAGR
    RevenueUSD 12.7bnUSD 13.2bnUSD 13.7bnUSD 14.2bnUSD 14.7bnUSD 15.2bnUSD 15.7bnUSD 16.1bnUSD 16.6bnUSD 17.0bn+3.3%
    EBITUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.4bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.5bnUSD 1.6bn+3.3%
    NOPATUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.2bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.3bnUSD 1.4bn+3.3%
    Add depreciation & amortisationUSD 592.5mUSD 616.6mUSD 640.4mUSD 663.9mUSD 687.0mUSD 709.5mUSD 731.4mUSD 752.5mUSD 772.8mUSD 792.1m+3.3%
    Less capital expenditureUSD -532.7mUSD -580.5mUSD -630.2mUSD -681.5mUSD -734.4mUSD -788.6mUSD -844.0mUSD -900.4mUSD -957.5mUSD -1.0bn+7.4%
    Capex, % of revenue4.2%4.4%4.6%4.8%5.0%5.2%5.4%5.6%5.8%6.0%-
    Less increase in working capitalUSD 1.1bnUSD -71.9mUSD -71.3mUSD -70.3mUSD -69.0mUSD -67.4mUSD -65.4mUSD -63.2mUSD -60.6mUSD -57.8m-
    Free cashflow to firmUSD 2.2bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.0bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bnUSD 1.1bn-7.3%
    Discount factor0.96400.89590.83260.77380.71910.66830.62110.57720.53640.4986-
    Present valueUSD 2.1bnUSD 923.0mUSD 871.2mUSD 820.3mUSD 770.5mUSD 722.0mUSD 674.9mUSD 629.3mUSD 585.2mUSD 542.9m-
    Present Value Of The ForecastUSD 8.6bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.89%US 10-year Treasury (^TNX), 2026-11-02
    Equity risk premium4.23%Damodaran, January 2026
    Beta1.201Reported 1.300, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity9.97%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt5.59%Risk-free + 70bp, the spread for a A+ rating at 5.6x interest cover. Book interest / average debt was lower, at 4.3%.
    Market capitalisationUSD 9.2bn53.2% of capital
    Total debtUSD 8.1bn46.8% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate12.2%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.60%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareUSD 61.82

    57% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    USD 1.1bn
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    USD 1.5bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (26.1% of NOPAT)
    USD -397.3m
    Capitalised
    USD 1.1bn
    ROIC (reported)
    9.6%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 22.6bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 11.3bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 19.9bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 13.6bn

    Exit at 5.1x EBITDA

    Value per shareUSD 38.01

    41% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    USD 12.1bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    USD 6.0bn
    Enterprise value
    USD 14.6bn
    Less net debt
    USD 6.2bn
    Equity value
    USD 8.4bn

    Spread between methods: 48%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (USD) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.60%101.92107.08114.21124.45139.99
    6.60%77.4779.2481.6584.9889.67
    7.60%61.0461.3361.8362.6263.80
    8.60%49.2548.8348.4748.1948.01
    9.60%40.3939.6438.8938.1537.40

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 44.23. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputActualModelImplied
    Revenue growth, a year5.3%-1.8%-4.6%
    EBIT margin10.3%9.2%7.1%
    Discount rate-7.6%9.0%
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.