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    ASM.AS · AMS · Technology

    ASM International NV

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR 180.62

    Market price

    EUR 813.80

    Implied upside

    -77.8%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 12.0% of revenue against depreciation of 6.6%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 32.6x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR 180.62-77.8%
    Exit multiple
    EUR 471.69-42.0%
    Market price
    EUR 813.80

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    0m442m883mFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 3.5bnEUR 3.8bnEUR 4.2bnEUR 4.6bnEUR 5.0bn+9.6%
    EBITEUR 938.6mEUR 1.0bnEUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bnEUR 1.4bn+9.6%
    NOPATEUR 738.0mEUR 808.8mEUR 886.3mEUR 971.3mEUR 1.1bn+9.6%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 230.7mEUR 252.8mEUR 277.0mEUR 303.6mEUR 332.7m+9.6%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -416.4mEUR -456.4mEUR -500.1mEUR -548.1mEUR -600.7m+9.6%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 60.3mEUR 66.1mEUR 72.4mEUR 79.3mEUR 87.0m-9.6%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR 612.5mEUR 671.2mEUR 735.6mEUR 806.2mEUR 883.5m+9.6%
    Discount factor0.94090.83290.73730.65270.5778-
    Present valueEUR 576.3mEUR 559.1mEUR 542.4mEUR 526.2mEUR 510.5m-3.0%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR 2.7bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta1.348Reported 1.520, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity12.96%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt7.03%Interest expense / average total debt
    Market capitalisationEUR 39.7bn100.0% of capital
    Total debtEUR 13.9m0.0% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.4%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC12.96%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR 180.62

    66% of EV

    Forecast FCFF, final year
    EUR 883.5m
    Capex at depreciation, working capital in reinvestment
    EUR 1.1bn
    Less reinvestment at g/ROIC (14.3% of NOPAT)
    EUR -152.4m
    Capitalised
    EUR 912.1m
    ROIC (reported)
    17.5%
    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 8.9bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 5.2bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 7.9bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -1.0bn
    Equity value
    EUR 8.9bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR 471.69

    88% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 33.7bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 19.5bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR 22.2bn
    Less net debt
    EUR -1.0bn
    Equity value
    EUR 23.2bn

    Spread between methods: 89%.

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    10.96%210.98214.67218.74223.28228.37
    11.96%192.28194.85197.65200.73204.12
    12.96%176.87178.68180.62182.72185.01
    13.96%163.97165.23166.58168.01169.55
    14.96%153.01153.88154.80155.77156.79

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 813.80. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    Revenue growth, every year9.6%54.0%+44.4pp
    Discount rate13.0%4.6%-8.3pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.