DCF Studio

    ASRNL.AS · AMS · Financial Services

    ASR Nederland N.V.

    Also onConsensus Drift

    Implied value per share

    EUR -148.30

    Market price

    EUR 74.08

    Implied upside

    -300.2%

    5-year forecast · Perpetuity growth terminal value · Mid-year discounting · Base case

    Wrong toolThis is a financial. Banks and insurers report no meaningful operating income, and capex and working capital do not mean what a free-cashflow model assumes, so a DCF will misprice it. The model below runs on best-effort numbers - treat it as an illustration, not a valuation.
    AdjustedConsensus rests on as few as 2 analyst estimate(s).
    AdjustedFree cashflow is negative in at least one forecast year, so terminal value carries most of the valuation.
    AdjustedCapital expenditure runs at 2.5% of revenue against depreciation of 1.2%. A perpetuity has to be a steady state, so the terminal year uses maintenance capex at depreciation and then charges the reinvestment terminal growth requires (g/ROIC of NOPAT). The bridge is shown under Terminal Value.
    NoteRisk-free rate is an assumption: USD assumption - no free live source available for this market.

    Current EV/EBITDA of 21.9x sits outside a defensible 3-20x band, so the exit multiple is capped at 20.0x. A multiple that far out usually means EBITDA is the wrong denominator for this business.

    Value Per Share

    Perpetuity growth
    EUR -148.30-300.2%
    Exit multiple
    EUR -1538.67-2177.0%
    Market price
    EUR 74.08

    Same forecast, different terminal treatment. Percentages vs price.

    Forecast Cashflows

    Reporting currency (EUR). Outflows negative.

    -14499683559-72498417790FY26FY27FY28FY29FY30
    Nominal FCFFDiscounted to todayEUR
    LineFY26FY27FY28FY29FY30CAGR
    RevenueEUR 19.7bnEUR 29.5bnEUR 44.2bnEUR 66.4bnEUR 99.5bn+50.0%
    EBITEUR -4.5bnEUR -6.8bnEUR -10.1bnEUR -15.2bnEUR -22.8bn-50.0%
    NOPATEUR -3.5bnEUR -5.3bnEUR -8.0bnEUR -11.9bnEUR -17.9bn-50.0%
    Add depreciation & amortisationEUR 227.3mEUR 341.0mEUR 511.5mEUR 767.3mEUR 1.2bn+50.0%
    Less capital expenditureEUR -487.1mEUR -730.7mEUR -1.1bnEUR -1.6bnEUR -2.5bn+50.0%
    Less increase in working capitalEUR 931.7mEUR 1.4bnEUR 2.1bnEUR 3.1bnEUR 4.7bn-50.0%
    Free cashflow to firmEUR -2.9bnEUR -4.3bnEUR -6.4bnEUR -9.7bnEUR -14.5bn-50.0%
    Discount factor0.96590.90130.84090.78470.7321-
    Present valueEUR -2.8bnEUR -3.9bnEUR -5.4bnEUR -7.6bnEUR -10.6bn-40.0%
    Present Value Of The ForecastEUR -30.3bn

    Discount Rate

    Source shown per component. All overridable above.

    Risk-free rate4.20%USD assumption - no free live source available for this market (assumption)
    Equity risk premium6.50%Market assumption
    Beta0.670Reported 0.507, pulled toward 1.0 (Blume)
    Cost of equity8.55%Risk-free + beta x equity risk premium
    Cost of debt6.20%Implied cost of debt of 57.8% is not a credible funding cost, so risk-free + 2bp is assumed instead. Interest expense and reported debt are measuring different things - common for banks, whose interest expense includes deposits that total debt excludes.
    Market capitalisationEUR 14.9bn62.6% of capital
    Total debtEUR 8.9bn37.4% of capital, book value as a proxy
    Tax rate21.5%Effective, capped at statutory
    WACC7.17%E/V x Re + D/V x Rd x (1 - t)

    Terminal Value

    Perpetuity growth is intrinsic. The exit multiple defaults to the company's current EV/EBITDA, so it answers a different question - what the shares are worth if today's rating holds and EBITDA grows as forecast.

    Perpetuity growth at 2.50%

    Value per shareEUR -148.30

    0% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR 0.00
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR 0.00
    Enterprise value
    EUR -30.3bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 3.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR -33.8bn

    Exit at 20.0x EBITDA

    Value per shareEUR -1538.67

    91% of EV

    Terminal value, undiscounted
    EUR -433.2bn
    Terminal value, discounted
    EUR -317.1bn
    Enterprise value
    EUR -347.4bn
    Less net debt
    EUR 3.6bn
    Equity value
    EUR -351.0bn

    Sensitivity

    Value per share (EUR) by discount rate and long-run growth.

    Long-run growth
    Discount rate1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
    5.17%-156.43-156.43-156.43-156.43-156.43
    6.17%-152.28-152.28-152.28-152.28-152.28
    7.17%-148.30-148.30-148.30-148.30-148.30
    8.17%-144.49-144.49-144.49-144.49-144.49
    9.17%-140.85-140.85-140.85-140.85-140.85

    Outlined: this model. Green text: above today's price of 74.08. Shading: distance from this model's own value.

    Priced In

    What each input would have to be to justify the current price, one at a time.

    InputModelImpliedGap
    EBIT margin-22.9%1.3%+24.2pp
    Download as Excel

    Live formulas, not pasted numbers - edit a driver and the workbook reprices.

    Yahoo Finance and RBA data. General information, not advice. Methodology.